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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: d[-_-]b who wrote (275561)	2/19/2006 11:26:49 PM
From: combjelly	Respond to of 1578027

"They can't even accurately predict the weather, why should we believe their climate models. " They are a lot closer than they were 30 years ago. Now it is more about details. Will the low be 40 degrees or 39? Will the high be 70 degrees or 72? Not like it used to be. When I worked for Beaumont Coke, if they gave a 50% or above chance of rain, it probably would rain that day. Not always, but likely. If they said less than 50%, no worries. There was no rain for the day. 30 years ago we didn't track temperature because no on knew what would happen. But whether or not you worked wet could make a difference. Knowing temp could make a big difference, not wearing sunglasses could effect your visual acuity when those bottles exploded when you touched the scratched bottles. But is was a game, we didn't really know. Nor could we prepare except for the worst case. And always preparing for the worst case meant preparing for the common case. It takes a great deal 0f discipline and training to deal with the worst case instead of the typical case.And that means the common case is trained for, not the worst.

To: d[-_-]b who wrote (275561)	2/20/2006 12:38:11 PM
From: tejek	Respond to of 1578027

re: Just wondering why a reasonably intelligent person would take the wrong side of a discussion. Such behavior suggests another agenda. Thanks for the kind words - however, I don't have an agenda beyond general skepticism. I've written simulations (SLAMII) and know it's easy to build a model that works fine when most things occur as expected - yet at the edges the model can produce results that are completely unrealistic. They can't even accurately predict the weather, why should we believe their climate models. I prefer to read source material from both sides until a later date. I have a strong suspicion that the model is well supported by the facts. Ten years ago, I might have been in your camp....no longer.