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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: westpacific who wrote (54283)	2/20/2006 9:14:56 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

jessel.100megsfree3.com No, they can't change it. We are already in the 2-nd wave down slipping into depression. In constant money, that is. Thanks to the Fed rewarding extreme speculation and discouraging production, the manufacturing in this country has never recovered. There will be nothing left to stop it once the foreign dollars start coming back in. No immediate cure for trade deficit, regardless of the dollar value. Note that large 4-5% a month drop of the dollar came on reduced foreign buying (say, 2 billion a day vs 3 billion a day trade deficit). When the dollar starts going down sharply, I expect they will want to get rid of their paper dollars as fast as possible. Foreigners hold 10 Trillion of our debt. This means 100 billion a day selling. That is, if they plan to sell reserves over 3 months. I can't imagine who would be buying the dollar on a day they sell 100 billion. In other words, don't short the gold.