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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: auriculatus who wrote (28758)	2/21/2006 7:09:58 PM
From: sixty2nds	Respond to of 95737

16:53 CYMI Cymer and KLA-Tencor Collaborate to Speed Lithography Process Optimization (45.78 ) Co today announced an agreement to collaborate with KLA-Tencor (KLAC). As part of the agreement, Cymer will provide details of light source spectra to be incorporated into KLA-Tencor's industry-standard PROLITH lithography optimization tool. In addition, the companies expect to continue to jointly develop enhancements to this capability for future PROLITH revisions. Through this collaboration, Cymer and KLA-Tencor plan to leverage their proven technology expertise to deliver increased accuracy, giving users immediate access to a more accurate representation of the complete optical lithography process.

To: auriculatus who wrote (28758)	2/21/2006 8:05:01 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95737

Yes, a good observation. The SEC stocks have fallen hard the past 3 days with seemingly little reason to do so. As BWAC might say, Mr Algo is riding herd on those stocks. FWIW - there has been mention recently, and in the past, about the potential for an upcoming "long term" bottom. We are nearing 4 years since the last one, 10/9/02, and they do seem to occur in 4 year cycles - the one before 10/9/02 was 10/8/98. Going back in time, I looked at "curr year" and "next year" earnings estimates at this point in time 4 years ago, 2/21/02. Then I looked at the earnings estimates on 10/9/02 to compare what had happened over the intervening 7 1/2 month period. The result is the table below. - 2/21/02 10/9/02 - EARNINGS EST EARNINGS EST SYMBOL CURR YR NEXT YR CURR YR NEXT YR AMAT 0.14 0.68 0.18 0.39 ASML -0.10 0.69 -0.22 0.15 ASYT -1.39 -0.67 -0.39 0.55 ATMI -0.15 0.82 -0.29 0.22 BRKS -0.96 0.74 -1.51 -0.10 CMOS -1.07 -0.33 -1.26 -0.62 COHU 0.26 0.92 -0.02 0.31 CYMI 0.11 0.87 0.70 1.05 EGLS -2.21 -1.16 -3.05 -2.24 FSII -1.07 0.15 -1.26 -0.59 KLAC 1.00 1.29 0.99 1.53 KLIC -0.88 0.37 -1.41 -0.81 LRCX -0.06 0.28 0.08 0.29 LTXX -0.91 -0.13 -0.76 -0.33 MTSN -1.83 -0.12 -2.10 -0.47 NVLS 0.01 1.12 0.27 0.44 PHTN -0.09 1.25 -0.25 0.12 PLAB 0.60 1.41 0.12 0.22 SMTL -0.45 0.16 -0.46 0.13 TER -1.14 0.29 -1.17 -0.31 UTEK 0.05 0.72 -0.78 -0.26 VECO 0.16 0.98 0.10 0.55 WFR -2.75 -1.90 -0.22 0.40 TOTAL -12.74 8.43 -12.71 0.62 A lot of "red" in that table, and while "curr year" earnings hardly changed at all, "next year" earnings sank to 0.62 from 8.43 in Feb. The status of earnings estimates now compared to Feb 02 are quite different as the following table shows. - 2/21/06 - EARNINGS EST PCT SYMBOL CURR YR NEXT YR CHG AMAT 0.82 0.93 13 ASML 1.06 1.24 17 ASYT 0.19 0.52 174 ATMI 1.10 1.36 24 BRKS 0.56 0.79 41 CMOS 0.28 0.62 121 COHU 1.40 1.84 31 CYMI 2.04 2.48 22 EGLS -0.77 -0.19 FSII -0.33 0.38 KLAC 2.22 2.79 26 KLIC 1.05 1.12 7 LRCX 2.22 2.56 15 LTXX 0.06 0.30 400 MTSN 0.62 0.68 10 NVLS 1.16 1.20 3 PHTN 0.66 1.10 67 PLAB 0.83 1.15 39 SMTL 0.49 0.94 92 TER 0.83 0.91 10 UTEK 0.35 1.01 189 VECO 0.83 1.29 55 WFR 1.58 1.83 16 TOTAL 19.25 26.85 39 As shown, earnings estimates are much higher now compared to Feb 02. In order for a "long term" bottom to occur this coming Oct, earnings estimates are going to have to come down considerably, particularly those for "next year". This would be a great change in business outlook for the semis and semi-equips in short order. During the first 6 weeks of this year, target mean prices for the Group have been raised by 18 percent at the bottom line as listed in, Message 22189756 That's the wrong thing to happen if we are heading for a long term bottom at the end of this year. Things can change quickly however, so we have to keep assessing the market, and particularly the semi-equips, on a daily/weekly basis. Don