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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (54558)	2/23/2006 9:51:19 AM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 110194

TOL: Can't believe it. Actually let Barfing.com shake me out of this short position. Had been thinking about taking some profits out of it, and I was pretty sure it would be gap 'n crap, but I guess I just let myself get a little uncomfortably overextended. That's when you lose your best positions... My problem has been that I've started leaning harder against the financials, a couple REITs, retail, and the deep cyclicals (steel :-{ ) and, well, I guess you can tell what that's got me. Just gotta keep reminding myself not to fight existing trends. Wait for the stock trend to match the expected fundamental trend. BC

To: orkrious who wrote (54558)	2/23/2006 10:38:32 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 110194

thanks. going forward, it will be interesting to see how TOL handles a few issues. Aside being the high end homebuilder, they also have the longest conversion cycle at around 12 months. During the last few years, that was no problem because rates were stable and buyers have no problem selling their existing homes for a high enough price to cover the purchase. Buyers today may be a little more gun shy in signing on the dotted line for a delivery so far into the future, especially when TOL asks for a much higher deposit than average, in the 5-10% range. That could be a contributing factor to their lower orders.