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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (28795)	2/23/2006 12:27:59 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95632

Another way of looking at what happened to INTC is to review the "before" and "after" earnings outlook at the close of this past FY, which for INTC is December. The table below shows the consensus analyst numbers starting on 12/30, and how they have changed on a weekly basis until the present time. -WK CURR NEXT -END YR YR 12/30 1.40 1.73 1/6 1.40 1.73 1/13 1.40 1.74 1/20 1.33 1.46 1/27 1.27 1.47 2/3 1.27 1.46 2/10 1.25 1.47 2/17 1.25 1.47 So what has happened is that prior to any reporting by INTC, on 12/30, FY 05 was projected at 1.40, and FY 06 was projected at 1.73. Upon reporting in January, analysts started adjusting the earnings picture until we have the present situation of FY 06 earnings projected at 1.25 and FY 07 earnings projected at 1.47. In other words, the earnings projections for FY 06 have gone from 1.73 to 1.25, a -28 percent reduction, and FY 07 has been established at 1.47. 1.47 for FY 07 is -15 percent BELOW the previously expected 1.73 for FY 06. Not a pretty picture! Instead of a nice upward trend in earnings year over year, there has been a big hiccup. One might argue there has been over a 1 year "slippage" in the earnings outlook for INTC as a result of their report. Don

To: Return to Sender who wrote (28795)	2/24/2006 9:29:04 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95632

rts, thanks for your reply and concern. No problem with margin. I had a nice cushion from wdc and stx. But back to Intel, re >> Actually INTC is up at the moment. That was yesterday. And actually, the setup is very obvious. After intc is up a little, and covering (or accumulating) becomes more expensive, a down-grade comes out of no-where. It goes down for that day. Presumably, the down-grader collects a commission based on the shares they harvest, and so on. This will keep going until the downgrades lose their effect. Meaning, all the fund-managers who are likely to respond to the scare are now out of shares. At that point, the hedge funds who have accumulated shares will want to sell them, and I suppose they will start requesting up-grades. Today, after the latest down-grade (which followed an up day - exactly like the previous two down-grades), we'll see whether saturation has been reached or not. It looks close to that point. Good luck to you too. Sarmad