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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (28825)	2/23/2006 7:40:41 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95632

Top Chipmaker Intel Lagging In Market, But For How Long? BY JAMES DETAR INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY Posted 2/23/2006 What happens when the posse takes off without the sheriff at the lead? Generally, confusion. But that's not the case in the chip market. Analysts say there are good reasons why industry kingpin Intel's (INTC) shares have fallen about 30% in the last seven months, at the same time chip stocks overall — especially that of Intel archrival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) — have risen by about the same percentage. Some analysts also say something else: The sheriff has plenty of bullets left. These analysts look for a return to order fairly soon. "AMD has had very good design recently, and it's produced some products that compete well," said A.G. Edwards analyst David Wong. "But in the long run, Intel, with its greater resources, is likely to remain the dominant (chip) company." Dominant it long has been. Based on 2005 revenue, Intel's nearly three times as large as No. 2 chipmaker Texas Instruments. (TXN) But that's scant comfort to recent shareholders. The Santa Clara, Calif., firm's stock has fallen 30% since July, closing Thursday at 20.29. The stock took a big hit in mid-January, when the company reported fourth-quarter results that fell short of its own guidance and of analyst expectations. And its guidance for this quarter lagged analyst expectations. "Intel's stock is in a show-me mode," said Jefferies & Co. analyst John Lau. But Intel has showed Lau, and Wong, something. Both rate Intel a buy, and AMD a hold. Where in the last 18 months or so AMD has released superior chips to those of Intel, the analysts foresee some high-quality product releases from Intel in the road ahead. AMD's used its cutting-edge products to take share from Intel in many computer markets, especially servers, but many analysts expect Intel to regain some of those losses over the next year or so. That feeling isn't unanimous. ThinkEquity analyst Eric Ross changed his rating on Intel to accumulate from buy three weeks ago. Wednesday, he downgraded to sell. "Chip inventories are building," he said. "Their new chips aren't having a typical rollout. They're (selling) slower than usual." AMD's stock, meanwhile, remains a stellar performer. Its shares have more than doubled since early July. Also, the closely watched Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, or SOX, is up 25% since July, to 525. And IBD's own 148-company semiconductor group is up 35% since July. On Wednesday, however, Merrill Lynch issued a report saying 470 would be a fair market value for the SOX, basically foreseeing a slowdown after a nice run-up. Yet, market research analysts are bullish on chips. Gartner this month upped its forecast for global chip sales this year, forecasting a rise of 9.5% to $258 billion. It had forecast 7.6% growth. Gartner analyst Andrew Norwood says that's partly thanks to another strong PC market. The firm expects PC unit sales will rise 9.3% this year, to about 239 million. He calls that strong growth, though it would be less than the past two years. Meanwhile, the Semiconductor Industry Association trade group forecasts global chip sales will rise 7.9% to $246 billion this year. That's up from a 6.8% gain in 2005. Market tracker Semico Research is even more bullish. On Monday, it issued a forecast that calls for 17.3% sales growth this year. Gartner's Norwood says the chip industry usually is very cyclical, with high peaks and deep valleys. But now it's in a period of steady, solid growth. "That's unusual," he said. "The chip business is usually boom and bust." One reason for the moderation is that chip companies are doing a much better job of gauging their inventory. That's what Norwood says and what Semico notes in its report, though ThinkEquity's Ross worries about rising inventory at Intel. Past bust cycles have been foreshadowed by chip inventories rising to unhealthy levels. That's not the case today, Norwood says, for most chip companies — including Intel. "Intel is a well-tuned fighting machine," he said. "They do make some false moves. But they have some new products coming out and will be trying to win back some market share."

To: Return to Sender who wrote (28825)	2/23/2006 8:35:13 PM
From: auriculatus	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95632

Rts, I try to buy shares when the RSI 14 is at 30, did so with CHK and CVX lately. Also got TXN below 30, and sold a bunch of Feb 30 puts that were in the money at the time. The RSI 14 on NVLS is around 40 and the stoch is on bottom. Hence I am still waiting for a bounce to sell the calls (so far I feel pretty stupid, and it gets worse by the day). What has me bent out of shape (polite way to put it) is that my broker botched the roll last Friday. On top of that this downdraft and I am not too happy right now. Unfortunately, NVLS is a huge portion of my holdings and getting 3% for a month or not is a big deal. Meanwhile, everything that we discussed last year is still in place. NVLS has a super low price to book compared to its peers, less than half that of LRCX. In the past few years NVLS has always made it back up to 40, but I am starting to think that if I get just under 30 I have done well. Why do you think this sector is so hard to figure out? Like Etch and I have pointed out, the last two times bookings started to move up, the SEC cos had topped out already (which would be right around now). Especially the hard fall of AMAT after the earnings (I expected them to be brought down to just around 20 for expiration, but the did not stop there) has a repeat of that phenom written all over it. That was the reason why I let my AMAT go. Unfortunately, NVLS did not close above strike and I still have the shares. That's why I like the energy sector right now. They behave quite well from a TA standpoint and the move with the underlying price of the product. The Fed is at it again, and despite the praise for Greenie, he killed the economy in 2000, and they are trying their hardest to repeat that. Based on the Fed one should sell everything right now and put it into a CD? I guess so.