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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mario :-) who wrote (23433)	2/24/2006 1:30:18 AM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78551

HURC. I was a day or two away from shorting. And I hardly ever short. (And when I do, I'm usually wrong -g-) It's just that I go on past results and these tool makers are cyclical and usually sell and should sell at low p/e's when times are good (assuming infinite p/e's when times are bad and there are no orders or profits). I've seen Hurcos on the factory floor - they're impressive (to me), but not more so than any other complex equipment in machine shops. Perhaps the new products that Hurco has are indeed quite significant and important and in demand by customers. Such a competitive business, with some national pride involved too (used to be anyway - in my limited experience - that customers would strongly prefer to buy from their own country's machine tool industry), that it's hard for me to see a sustainable competitive advantage that Hurco might have. Just my opinion, I've been wrong many times, and I am NO expert. Someone buying or holding the stock after my last post denigrating the stock price, possibly has done okay even with today's price drop. I do not know. My opinion - that the stock is still expensive at current price - might change if someone who had current actual experience with the machines were to post. I see only people who look at the current and perhaps purported future sales and earnings. My experience - which is very limited - as regards this business and the stocks is that that is dangerous.