Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (54715)	2/25/2006 10:39:45 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I would guess that the FED would like to see some normalization of rates across the board.... a merger of global rates if you would. i do not think that is possible, if by "global" you mean to include the largest creditor (Japan) and the largest debtor (US). i doubt long rates in Japan can go over 2% given their incredible debt mountain. Who know I am just guessing as much as anyone else. hear, hear. we are all guessing. there are a million possible futures; you don't know which one will turn up. i just try to make my guess one that will benefit if the world i expect turns out to be true (which it has--clown long energy trade for three years), and will not get too killed if it doesn't turn out to be true (hence bond exposure). i still believe in all these long-term themes like energy, basic materials, emerging, etc. but there is the interplay with the rapid money movements that scares the carp out of me. emerging in particular is waiting to get whacked imo. you don't get 70% up years and huge inflows without Mr. Market issuing a friendly reminder that standard deviation means fluctuation in both directions. I seriously underestimated the strength of the housing bubble and what it would take to prick it. i think several years from now, we might be saying that we seriously underestimated the depth of the housing bear market. no shiat!!!

To: mishedlo who wrote (54715)	2/25/2006 11:46:24 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

"About the only place we are better off from several years ago is corporate balance sheets." And that is going to change if the current trend of billions of capital flow from private equity using tremendous leverage to take companies private and avoid the ups and downs of Wall Street and Sarbanes-Oxley continues. I read much of that money is coming from underfunded pension funds desperate to make up the difference somehow some way.

To: mishedlo who wrote (54715)	2/26/2006 1:56:09 PM
From: kris b	Respond to of 110194

BTW I do not think those balance sheets are as good as they look because of health care benefits" And phony paper gains on financial speculation, like MBS and plethora of other funny money claims. With onset of recession all this so called "profits" will turn into massive losses impairing corporate balance sheets for years. Japanese banks are still (16 years later) sitting on massive loan losses. Remember over 50% of all corporate profits are derived from shuffling paper /funny money around. Ask GE CEO.