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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: loantech who wrote (7187)	2/26/2006 9:21:00 PM
From: E. Charters	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78416

Try this. You have three doors to open. Two contain goats, and one contains a cadillac. Wanting the cadillac, you choose one door. A completely unbiased judge who knows what is behind all three doors, offers you a chance to change your selection after opening one of doors you did not pick and showing you it contains a goat. He knows he is showing you a door which contains the goat in one of the other doors, because if he showed you the car it would not be a game anymore. So he asks you what are your chances that the car is behind the door not picked rather than the door you started out with? Since one door has a goat evidently, and you now have a choice of the other two, having already picked one, do you switch for the seeming 50-50 chance of finding the car, or stay? The answer lies as Vos Savant saw, in the choices the game show host has when he is setting up. He can decide to put the car behind any door, from 1 to 3. He can then ask himself, "what are the choices that if I decide to open door 1 before-hand, that it will contain a car, if the contestant does not select door 1, nor does the contestant select the car?, -and- if I get my assistant to put the car in either 1, 2 or 3 and I do not know which does not hold the car until the contestant selects? (The answer is 2/3s that he will not have the car behind door 1.) It always is. Now we ask, why change from door 1 to a door the contestant does not select? Because it is a 2/3's chance that the contestant selected a car out of the other two doors, goat-car not goat-goat. there are only three ways to have your two door combo, goat-car, goat-goat, and car-goat. So switching to the not selected door, ONCE the selected one IS KNOWN to be a goat, is better than taking a random chance on any one door which is always 1/3!!!!!!! It is jumping to a combo of two from a pick of one. Remember chance is not certainty, so the combinations outline the chances, not the certainty of occurrence. Most people will ask but but but the two doors we had before, the one I picked at the start and the the goat door shown, don't they have equal chance being a combo?.. i.e. 2/3rds' ? Amazingly no. Still only 1/3. The reason is the host who knows where the car is can only open the door that hides a goat. If you land on a goat, there can only be goat-car, car-goat, if you land on a car, you can only see goat-goat left. Therefore he shows you a goat there are only three choices for the other door, and two of them have a car in them. Two chances to win, one to lose -- ONLY if you switch. The overwhelming majority sees it as 50-50 but it ain't. Again. Any two are 2/3s. Any fool can see that. So stick on one and its 1/3. Sequester two, as in you have to be with one choice, AND show one of those is a goat. What can it be? ans: goat car, goat goat, and car goat. SO chance to change to one of those two which we know has a goat, and get a car? the ans 2 out of 3. Vos Savant was right as rain and still the smartest chickie boo in east pennsylvania!!! EC<:-}