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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ild who wrote (54807)2/27/2006 2:31:12 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Respond to of 110194
 
yeah, he offers proposals. i always skip those parts of books since they are just fictional fantasies -g-. people who are rich, powerful, and have tons of credibility like Buffett and Bogle cannot change the system; they can only complain. eventually, what i think will happen over the next couple decades is people will have really bad returns from US large caps and begin to realize these companies are Ponzi schemes. at that point, the stocks should sell off hard and perhaps the system will change. or, more likely, America will just be left by the wayside and do poorly all century. in any case, there is no way in hell that the SPX can do a repeat of last century's 7% real geometric return given today's nosebleed valuations and Ponziesque returns to insiders.

the current setup is very bad for Vanguard since they are heavily weighted toward US large growth (overpriced trash) through their SPX index funds and "whole market" funds. thus, i think they will do very poorly, albeit not as badly as all the closet indexing mutual fund manglers who copy them but charge much higher fees.

DFA is much better than Vanguard since they have a much stronger emphasis on the small/value premia available in all markets, and are also much better in terms of international exposure. ultimately, it is better to do what DFA does and vote with your pocketbook (stop buying overpriced US Ponzi schemes) than to keep buying it but complain about it at the same time like Bogle does. of course, Bogle has a lot of integrity like Buffett, and is one of the few heroes in a landscape of scumbags, but i believe his approach is wrong and he is fighting the last war.



To: ild who wrote (54807)2/27/2006 2:42:47 PM
From: ild  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
Investment Outlook
Bill Gross | March 2006

The Gang Who Couldn’t Talk Straight
pimco.com