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To: ild who wrote (54890)	2/28/2006 12:55:30 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Andy Xie on Japan's role in Ponzi finance, The policy of the Bank of Japan is perhaps the biggest area of uncertainty as regards the EM boom. The BoJ is probably the lender of last resort in the global financial system. The massive carry trade – borrowing yen to borrow US treasuries for interest spread income – may be the explanation for the flat yield curve. Indirectly, I believe the BoJ liquidity may have caused the collapse in the EM risk premium.

To: ild who wrote (54890)	2/28/2006 1:27:49 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Date: Tue Feb 28 2006 12:45 trotsky (Bleuler, 11:39) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved in fact, the bulk of trading volume on the NYSE consists of program trades ( this osciillates between 50 and 75% of the total trading volume ) . program trades are automated arbitrages designed to exploit premia and discounts of stock index futures compared to the baskets of underlying stocks in the cash market. a simple algorithm works out if the difference between cash and futures for the remaining life of the respective futures contract exceeds the return of a t-bill over the same span. as soon as it does, the trade is executed automatically. there is no human intervention at all - the computers are basically trading among themselves. Date: Tue Feb 28 2006 11:47 trotsky (traderneal) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "Today, PRU cuts NEM's earnings out to 2010..." of course it's ridiculous, but note that Prudential's gold analyst is one of the best sell-side contrary indicators we have ( his only serious competition is probably CIBC in the contrary indicator dept. ) . he urged his clients to sell NEM at $16 back in 2000, and has issued sell after sell most of the way up. a habitual gold bear basically, sort of an Andi Smith clone. Date: Tue Feb 28 2006 11:32 trotsky (@pm stocks) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved looks like today was a nice buying opportunity. money flows look good, and sentiment remains as skeptical as ever ( in terms of quantitative sentiment measures ) . imo the news from NEM will be quickly digested. their low-balling guidance also ensures the likelihood of positive surprises in future quarters is enhanced. Date: Tue Feb 28 2006 11:26 trotsky (Glooscap, 9:06) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved sorry, but for once , Bush does not deserve the criticism heaped on him from across the political spectrum. the only 'crime' of the Dubai Port management company seems to be that it is comprised of Arabs. management of the ports is distinct from the security arrangements, which remain a business of the state. besides, the UAE are probably THE closest US ally in the ME after Israel. in short, what this is about are the commercial interests of the US based company that stirred the controversy up, and a show of xenophobic Arab-hating racism. the alleged 'security concerns' are merely a populist ploy. does anyone really believe the congressmen and senators suddenly blustering with indignation are after anything but scoring a few cheap political points? the whole thing is a farce. on a more general point, i don't think the ports can be made truly 'secure' in spite of the likely increase in security measures implemented by the respective authorities. it is simply physically impossible to inspect every cargo without bringing trade to a standstill. the best way of ensuring security is to change course in foreign policy, with the aim of reducing the chances of so-called 'blowback'. everything else is cosmetic and largely a waste of time and resources. focusing on terrorists in the 'war on terra' instead of just about everybody else might also be a good idea. Date: Tue Feb 28 2006 11:01 trotsky (@the other 'stan) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "Recent opinion polls have suggested public support for the mission is low, but Defence Minister Gordon O'Connor has said the mission is vital." it is? isn't opium poppy production already back at fresh record highs? isn't the country already fragmenting into a number of warlord controlled fiefdoms? what other vital developments need our support? Date: Tue Feb 28 2006 10:42 trotsky (GOOG-splat) ID#248269: the market loses its speculative leader stock.