Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill on the Hill who wrote (3706)	3/4/2006 12:00:56 PM
From: Triffin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24207

Tricks are for kids <gg> Hey Bill .. I've been cogitating on this whole PO situation for awhile now and my "Doomerosity" level has been falling lately .. Here's my thinking .. tell me where I've gone astray <g> Some facts .. Planet uses +83 million bpd or 30.3 billion barrels annually .. USA uses +20 million bpd of which +10 mbpd is for transportation fuels .. cars/trucks/trains/jets/ etc .. Pick a number .. planet has 1 - 3 trillion barrels additional reserves counting conventional oil, heavy oils, oil sands, oil shales, CTL and/or GTL .. Let's assume that we have 2 trillion barrels recoverable from all sources and that due to depletion of existing fields and the inability of the non-conventional oil sources to 'scale-up'; that production going forward stays more or less constant at ~83 million bpd ( who knows where demand goes ) .. So 2000 billion barrels @ 30.3 billion barrels per year consumption gives us another 66 years at current consumption levels .. So, we've got a major planning problem .. or do we ?? The USA currently consumes ~24% of daily production .. Some 60% ( ~12 mbpd ) is imported from foreign sources; Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, Persian Gulf, and West Africa with the balance produced domestically .. Now, as demand exceeds supply in a post peak world one would expect prices to rise to the point required to induce demand destruction which IMHO will occur most dramatically in those countries that currently subsidize the cost of transport fuels locally ( Venezuela with it's $0.24/gallon fuel ) as they can no longer afford to do so .. The west may 'bitch' but we're the ones that can best afford the higher fuel costs going forward .. Peak Oil will be primarily a developing nation problem .. As our POTUS stated "the American way of life is not negotiable" Second and third world demand destruction ( if it doesn't also cause a global recession/depression ) will free up the 76% of global production that we in the USA don't consume .. So, I'm in the 'long emergency' camp where I forsee an extended period going forward of flat to slightly declining production ( scale-up of non conventional crudes will mask depletion of light sweet crude ) with prices periodically 'spiking' to kill 2nd and 3rd world demand .. Meanwhile, if we're smart, we ... 1) Dramatically increase the efficiency of the existing transport fleet from +20 mpg to +40 mpg over the next 10-15 years .. faster if need be with the appropriate financial incentives for both vehicle producers and consumers .. 2) Mitigate 10% of fuel consumption by mandating 10% ethanol blends ( it's law now due to MTBE contamination ) .. E85 will only be viable/practical in the corn belt states .. 3) Throw enough dollars at Alberta CA to bump synfuels from 1.7 million bpd to +5 million bpd by 2025 with the bulk of the increased production going to USA refiners via pipelines already in place .. 4) Long term supply contracts from our "friendly" list of current suppliers of light sweet crude <g> There's no reason we can't achieve; over time, a 50% reduction in consumption through efficiency improvements and with the actions outlined above, we'll have 'bought' considerably more time for a smoother transition to a post fossil fuel economy .. Triff .. @pinch-me-I'm-dreaming.com