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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (72735)	3/1/2006 1:11:07 PM
From: ZJOHN	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Trying some DIA puts here, market has to start going down again

To: Real Man who wrote (72735)	3/13/2006 8:25:32 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Here is the lesson that investors learned from the large cap tech bubble six years ago: Just transfer your $$$ into the Russell 2000 and S@P Midcap 400 and create similar bubbles therein. March 10, 2006 was the anniversary of the all time high on the Nasdaq Composite, 5132. The small and midcap indices are going to get creamed in the next Bear Market. They held up well during the 2000-2002 Bear because they were dirt cheap back then. But now they are sporting outrageous PE's. Just about everyone is expecting new 52 highs on the major indices in short order. The Bears are crying and capitulating all over the place here. Sure, current Investors Intelligence sentiment is somewhat neutral because most Americans are so overloaded with debt that they have no idea how they will be able to pay it off with the new bankruptcy laws and higher minimum monthly payments on their credit cards. But insider selling is accelerating at ominous levels and the commercials are quite short the big S@P contract. I just don't see new 52 week highs in the cards here. The Nasdaq will be hard pressed to even get back to 2300 on this move. What I do see is one more rally day at most here. Then we resume the decline from last week. PS I haven't forgotten about the housing bubble. But that has at least been slightly pricked. If I'm wrong, I'll know in short order by the S@P closing above 1296 and the Nasdaq above 2333.