To: TopCat who wrote (54963 ) 3/1/2006 2:16:46 PM From: sea_biscuit Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 93284 Iraq study warned of civil war White House, Military Dismissed '03 Analysis By Warren P. Strobel and Jonathan S. Landay 03/01/06 "Knight Ridder" -- -- WASHINGTON - U.S. intelligence agencies repeatedly warned the White House beginning more than two years ago that the insurgency in Iraq had deep local roots, was likely to worsen and could lead to civil war, according to former senior intelligence officials who helped craft the reports. Among the warnings, Knight Ridder has learned, was a major study, called a National Intelligence Estimate, completed in October 2003 that concluded that the insurgency was fueled by local conditions -- not foreign terrorists -- and drew strength from deep grievances, including the presence of U.S. troops. The existence of the top-secret document, which was the subject of a bitter three-month debate among U.S. intelligence agencies, has not been previously disclosed to a wide public audience. The reports received a cool reception from Bush administration policy-makers at the White House and the office of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, according to the former officials, who discussed them publicly for the first time.President Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, Rumsfeld and others continued to describe the insurgency as a containable threat, posed mainly by former supporters of Saddam Hussein, criminals and non-Iraqi terrorists -- even as the U.S. intelligence community was warning otherwise. Robert Hutchings, the chair of the National Intelligence Council from 2003 to 2005, said the October 2003 study was part of a ``steady stream'' of dozens of intelligence reports warning Bush and his top lieutenants that the insurgency was intensifying and expanding.``Frankly, senior officials simply weren't ready to pay attention to analysis that didn't conform to their own optimistic scenarios,'' Hutchings said. The NIC is the intelligence community's foremost group of senior analysts, and as its chair, Hutchings presided over the drafting of the October 2003 report and other analyses of the insurgency.Tuesday in Congress, Army Lt. Gen. Michael Maples, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, testified that the insurgency ``remains strong and resilient.'' Maples said that while Iraqi terrorists and foreign fighters conduct some of the most spectacular attacks, disaffected Iraqi Sunnis make up the insurgency's core. ``So long as Sunni Arabs are denied access to resources and lack a meaningful presence in government, they will continue to resort to violence,'' he told the Senate Armed Services Committee.