[N]ot a single visitor to Iraq from any media or
political party, including critics of the Iraq war, has
reported any such negativity among the troops there.
Indeed, overwhelming support for the mission and for
finishing the job is reported. Similarly, among the 1,246
military blogs, one would have to search hard and long to
find such corroborating negativity.
How reliable is Zogby poll of military in Iraq?
Bruce Kesler
Democracy Project
The latest Zogby “poll” purports to show heavy unclarity of mission and support for leaving Iraq during the next year or sooner among our servicepeople in Iraq.
However, Zogby’s poll purposely leaves open too many questions, which combined with the performance and nature of the Zogby polling organization, raises many doubts as to the poll’s reliability.
First, the questions asked are not publicly revealed, nor the preparatory statements to the questions. Results of polls can vary widely depending on how the questions are presented, and prefaced by what information or assertions. Further, the questioner may affect the willingness of the respondent to be questioned, affecting the results, and may select those responding, again affecting the results. Those administering the questionnaire to troops are not revealed.
Second, the survey methodology is not publicly revealed. Without this standard professional transparency and peer review, it is impossible to test reliability.
Third, the specific demographics of the military members in Iraq are not known. Without this benchmark, it is impossible to know whether the sample is representative.
Further, as Zogby told the Mystery Pollster:
<<< According to the procedure Zogby described, respondents were intercepted randomly (e.g. they were not self-selected) at multiple locations throughout Iraq (e.g. not just in the so-called “Green Zone”)…Zogby was willing to share the specific geographic locations where they collected data on the condition I nor repeat them. I passed on the offer as my knowledge of Iraq and military operations there is cursory at best, but I have no doubt his offer was genuine. >>>
Thus, aside from generic methodology issues, the ability of this polling expert to evaluate the validity of the poll is weak.
The Mystery Pollster, apparently liberal but quite professional in his judgments, interviewed John Zogby about the methodology of this poll. According to the interview:
<<< Zogby provided Nick Kristof and others reporting on the poll full details about his methodology on an “off-the-record” basis.
Zogby’s response to the question as to “what advice he would offer data consumers who find this all puzzling. In this case, he said, ‘you have to trust me.” >>>
Sorry, that’s not how professional, reputable, reliable polling is done.
Fourth, the organization sponsoring the poll, Le Moyne College Center for Peace and Global Studies is a typical leftist campus creation, and Zogby is frequently criticized for producing the poll results desired by its client. As the liberal American Prospect said of “a closer look at his methods”:
<<< Media coverage of polling results often neglects to mention the self-interestedness of the sponsor, and John Zogby is a leading enabler. Today, Zogby International's polling reputation may be second only to that of the hallowed Gallup Organization, which makes having a Zogby Poll extremely desirable for advocacy groups across the political spectrum…. As Zogby himself acknowledges, the repute he derives from media polling helps him sell his services to more self-interested clients. The lucky groups end up with the Zogby brand name attached to findings that advance their agendas. "Media organizations should have people who absolutely aren't polling for interest groups," observes Robert Blendon, who directs Harvard University's Program on Public Opinion and Health and Social Policy. Blendon notes that most major media polling conglomerates, such as the ABC News/Washington Post Poll, maintain firewalls between their work and outside interests... >>>
Further, it is a mystery where this campus sponsor came up with the big bucks to sponsor such a poll. That's hardly the type of finances that a small liberal arts college department has available.
The Mystery Pollster (link above) reports that:
<<< The Center for Peace and Global Studies paid Zogby to conduct the study but otherwise played no role in conducting interviews or gathering the data. >>>
However, as the American Prospect study of Zogby’s methods says:
Zogby acknowledges that he retains control over question
phrasing. Indeed, in the world of interest-group polling,
clients often submit proposed questions or concepts, but
much of what they are buying is the polling firm's
expertise in devising wording that produces results...
Fifth, John Zogby and his brother James, have a long record of pro-Arabist positions. Their own foreign policy predilections add to the suspicion of this poll’s reliability.
<<< ... The Christian Science Monitor hosted a breakfast with John Zogby (the pollster) and James Zogby (president of the Arab American Institute). Low and behold, the Zogby poll is described as being run by BOTH of them, not just by the pollster, and the discussion of it on TV has involved both of them - John talking about the poll itself, then a quick tag to James who rails against U.S. foreign policy... >>>
Lastly, not a single visitor to Iraq from any media or political party, including critics of the Iraq war, has reported any such negativity among the troops there. Indeed, overwhelming support for the mission and for finishing the job is reported. Similarly, among the 1,246 military blogs, one would have to search hard and long to find such corroborating negativity.
UPDATE: See update, Expert: Zogby "poll" needs "big 'grains of salt'".
democracy-project.com
democracy-project.com
zogby.com
mysterypollster.com
prospect.org
hfienberg.com
milblogging.com |
