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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ecrire who wrote (1257)	3/2/2006 9:54:05 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50264

re: ["It all sounds too pat."] If you want -- "too pat" -- try Oil & Natural Gas Prices where they still are - given inventory levels. OPEC just said there's an excess of + 2 Million bpd of Oil on the market right now. Did anyone see John Kilduff of Fimat USA on CNBC talking about "China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve" and how they've been stockpiling crude... I told people on these threads that China has been stockpiling crude for over 2 years...and the "Boomsters" said -- China's SPR doesn't even exist. ....clueless. Enron yesterday... Goldman today. No - F'n difference....and it will end the same way It was a "PEAK US DOLLAR" correction followed by Greenspan's Folly -- "PEAK FIAT REFLATION" that created a PEAK MISALLOCATION OF CAPITAL which turned into a PEAK COMMODITY SPECULATION ! ...peak oil - my ass. Oil was $35 and the USD collapsed nearly 40%. Why wouldn't OPEC then want at least $47 USD's for the same barrel of oil ? -- and that's exactly where Oil corrected to last spring ($45) when Goldman came out with their now infamous $108 call...and the speculators all lined up fand followed them in a -- "student body left" mass speculative run in oil and gas. Anything above $42/$45 given where the USD is today... is speculation & supply disruption risk premium --- period. Doesn't mean speculators can't drive it to $100 + if Iran heats up. But, $60 Oil because of a US Dollar collapse, hurricanes, or Iraq & Iran -- has NOTHING to do with Matt Simmons -- "supply:demand" shock thesis. The majority of the oil traders don't even believe in "Peak Oil" ... it's just a momenteum trade -- "student body left" and follow the crowd. Oh sure, they'll talk a good PR game on CNBC...but, off camera -- it's "Party like it's 1999 (tech-inet mania) and they all know it. Matt Simmons is an open joke. It's been a great momenteum & speculation trade -- the huricanes were a once in a lifetime gift from the oil trading god's -- otherwise without them...and the Iran-Nuke Story.... I guarantee you that Matt Simmons and his Peak Oil BS thesis would already be run out of town on a sharp stick and we'd be around $42-$48 right now. This was a US Dollar and Greenspan Fiat Explosion Story -- not peak oil.... a significant under investment cycle hit at the same time as a US Dollar correction -- nothing more, nothing less. Just another cycle...with a massive US Dollar correction...Mid East War...and a once in two hundred year - dual hurricane direct hit. Otherwise -- we'd be at $45ish today given inventory nubmers -- and don't be surprised if we aren't there within 6 mos - if we don't bomb Iran's nuclear facilities. Look at the damn inventory numbers -- only someone in clinical denial, or a complete and utter moron - stills buys into the "Peak Oil" BS of Simmons. Just wait...one day the Goldman "tapes" will come out. You'll hear what real Oil Traders think about Matt Simmons and Peak Oil ...and what a complete and utter "game" this has all been. They'll make the Enron traders comments of "burn, baby - burn" and "The Aunt Millie" comments pale in comparison... Commodity players -- regardless of what you're in -- had better watch these disappointing retail numbers in the US. We are the engine that drives China. If (when) the US enters a recession -- China get's smacked down and the air will quickly come out of the commodity balloon. It can turn quickly. Billions of dollars in adjustable rate mortgages will just start to begin to get reset this spring... that's going to be one helluva lotta money that's going to get sucked out of consumer spending. And don't discount what the new Bankruptcy Reform laws will do to consumer spending. --- no more fresh start and walk away from all those credit card bills. --- it's debtors prison now (vbg). Don't get greedy, or complacent...things could change very quickly Slider