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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Schnullie who wrote (49390)3/3/2006 1:08:37 PM
From: gpowellRespond to of 306849
 
Poorly worded. Should be "as of late 2005".

Are you saying that housing price appreciation simply reflects long-term 5% inflation?

Since 1952, which is as far back as I have data, house prices have appreciated at about 5%. I am not holding quality factors, such as the size, constant, and therefore one wouldn't necessarily call this inflation. FYI,I would tend to reserve the use of the word inflation to refer to a persistent rise in the price level.

If so, how do you reconcile the net negative national salaries recently calculated for the last 3 and I believe 5 years with the doubling and tripling of home prices over the same period?

Home price appreciation did not keep up with income growth during much of the 90's, as the flat area of my chart indicates. That would imply that housing became more affordable during this period, as the post by Micawber also indicates. Thus, much of the price appreciation since 2000 has been a return to trend.

See this post: Message 22043263



To: Schnullie who wrote (49390)3/3/2006 2:41:41 PM
From: SchnullieRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
I will study your data more carefully on the weekend.

But what is the function (mathematically speaking) defined by the curve labeled "1.05" on your original post? e EXP[1.05]?

Also, whatever the function is, its blowing up and will begin to approach a vertical slope. If this is correct, the function is predicting MASSIVE gains in house price are imminent and will continue....forever. Is this correct?