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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (278034)3/4/2006 5:39:56 PM
From: tejek  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1571898
 
Ted, The poor guidance from INTC today.......market share loss to AMD, economy is slowing or both? Do you have any idea?

I had a clue a few weeks ago (which I won't discuss here), but I didn't bother "connecting the dots" until just this morning in the shower. Right after that, I see that INTC guided downward.


Interesting......I don't own any AMD so I don't have that axe to grind. In fact, I have INTC in my 401.

I can't say much about the overall economy, but I do think AMD is continuing to take market share. I see that Google is now buying Opteron-based servers. Meanwhile, Otellini is telling the marketing guys to get back market share at any cost, but with the way the server market is going, that could mean a reduction in profit margins.

I can tell you that the chip markets have been stronger than expected. It seems that the tech slump that has existed for years since 2000 is starting to come to an end. I suspect stocks have finally been depleted. Another tech industry that is starting to turn up is fiberoptics which like chips was overstocked at the end of the tech bust in 2000.

Still, I thought AMD was too small to make that kind of impact on INTC. However, since posting to you yesterday, it looks like INTC isn't involved right now in any of the niches that are growing......so there is nothing to pick up the slack from AMD market share inroads. And some think that inroad is greater than once believe.......ie Google and Opteron.

The real key is 2nd half, when Intel finally releases Merom/Conroe/Woodcrest, or what I like to call "Pentium Five." That's when I think it's curtains for AMD.

Do you think? Doesn't AMD have anything in the pipeline?