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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Petz who wrote (188612)	3/4/2006 4:52:15 AM
From: TGPTNDR	Respond to of 275872

Petz, Re: AMD's current guidance is "AMD expects first quarter sales to be flat to slightly down seasonally from the fourth quarter of 2005."> I didn't listen to the CC. First one in, maybe, 6 years I haven't at least listened to. But... In the last several Qs CCs when Hector has referred to sales he's been talking about X86 CPU sales, IIRC, and generally said something like "but we expect to do better than that." "Flat to slightly down seasonally from the fourth quarter of 2005" is a rather nebulous statement. Seasonally down would be around 5-8% for the industry. Something less than that for AMD which has, in the past, blown out inventory in January and again stuffed the channel in March.(Was last year was an exception to that?) So I'd give you "slightly down seasonally" would be no more than a 4% drop, or CPG revenues of $1,255M. Easily. Re: Any hint that revenues could actually rise should and would UNLEASH AMD from its current narrow trading range. Comments? I bought some small number of options today near the close. Not 100s of contracts but not single digits either. Poking in a little of the $ I took out of some long term $25s a couple of weeks ago. Nervous as always, -tgp

To: Petz who wrote (188612)	3/4/2006 1:23:07 PM
From: dougSF30	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

AMD has used "slightly" w.r.t. revenue changes twice in the recent past, and it worked out to + or - 3%.

To: Petz who wrote (188612)	3/4/2006 2:18:05 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Petz, Any hint that revenues could actually rise should and would UNLEASH AMD from its current narrow trading range. Comments?? Rise in revenue, assuming roughly constant ASPs, would need higher unit sales. Higher unit sales would, most likely, need additional supply from Fab 36. So far, no word from AMD on the subject. Maybe on Monday from Hector. There are 2 possibilities: Fab 36 parts are entering market place (as they should based on the schedule of production start) or they are not. If they are not, it is a moot point. But if there are Fab 36 parts nearing the end, or out of the pipeline. What is the best course of action for AMD? Announce them or not? On balance, it may be a better idea to say nothing. It is good for AMD to appear mildly capacity limited. A mild scarcity of a product make it seem more desirable, more deserving higher ASPs. From the point of view of Intel, it will seem that Intel can't take more share than the capacity of Fab 30, from the point of view of Wall Street, oversupply, excess capacity, pricewar are all bad words... Joe