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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: smooth2o who wrote (183664)	3/5/2006 3:39:25 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Respond to of 186894

Thanks. Another puzzling thing is the wording of the Intel release. In the Friday warning from Intel, they didn't mention chipsets or ASP, just lower demand and slight drop in MS. Do they have flexibility to shift capacity to chipsets when processors are in over-supply ? Or is it more complicated than that ?

To: smooth2o who wrote (183664)	3/5/2006 6:27:03 PM
From: THE WATSONYOUTH	Respond to of 186894

I don't see AMD gaining more than about 25% through 2006. That alone would say that Intel will have good revenues and profit with a growing market. Sorry.....the numbers don't add up. It would be an unmitigated Intel disaster if AMD had 25% share in 06. For 05, Intel sold about 179M units vs 41M for AMD. Lets assume a very optimistic 12% market expansion in 06 to 246.4M units. Add about 3.6M for the Apple conversion to 250M total. If AMD gets 25% of that, it reaches 62.5M while Intel reaches 187.5M. That's 52% y/y unit growth for AMD vs 4.7% growth for Intel. Combined with at least that much ASP erosion, Intel would have flat revenue for the year. I do not expect Intel to lose that much share in 06 unless things are far far worse than I anticipate. Intel shareholders better pray it doesn't happen. THE WATSONYOUTH