Bush Perceived Blunders on Iraq, Katrina Buoy Democrats in 2006
March 7 (Bloomberg) -- After years of disunity, disorder and disappointment, Democrats finally have something going for them: Republicans.
The Democrats, who languished in public-opinion polls even as President George W. Bush's approval ratings plunged, now say their prospects are on the rise: In the most recent Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll, Americans by a margin of 46 percent to 37 percent said they plan to vote Democratic for Congress this year.
That has led to a growing belief among party leaders that they may take back control of the House of Representatives and gain seats in the Senate. ``We are going to do well if for no other reason than we are not them,'' Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana said. ``A majority of Americans are clearly not happy with the direction of the country, and they want change.''
Vin Weber, a former Republican representative from Minnesota who retains close ties to the White House, said that ``Democrats are in a great position going into an off-year election. They are not a coherent political party and they don't have anything to say, but they might win.''
Bush's approval ratings have plunged to 38 percent in the latest Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll, while almost two-thirds of Americans are convinced the country is on the wrong track, amid dissatisfaction over the war in Iraq, the federal response to Hurricane Katrina, large deficits and proposed foreign management of U.S. ports.
``A lot of people were standing with the Republicans because they had one issue that blocked out the sun: security, safety, `they can protect us better,''' said Bill Daley, who was Vice President Al Gore's 2000 presidential campaign chairman and President Bill Clinton's commerce secretary. ``But two things blew a hole in that: Katrina and Iraq.''
`Almost Can't Lose'
As a result, ``no matter what the Democrats look like, they will be the beneficiaries,'' Daley said. ``Short of something happening between now and November that the Democrats have nothing to do with, they almost can't lose this.''
Democrats have blown opportunities before. In 2004, they thought they could take advantage of Republican missteps such as a flu-vaccine shortage and failure to secure weapons and explosives depots in Iraq. In the end, they fell short in both the presidential and congressional elections.
Republicans currently hold 231 seats in the House of Representatives to the Democrats' 201, and 55 seats in the Senate to the Democrats' 45.
Democrats are trying to guard against overconfidence and are working so hard in some areas that Republicans say they are jealous. ``The Democrats have been better organized and on- message than Republicans have been,'' said Republican Senator John Cornyn of Texas. ``The first rule of politics is, `Don't let your opponents characterize you.' We've let that happen.''
Reversal of Fortune
This represents a reversal of fortune for Democrats, who in past elections have felt Republicans successfully characterized them as the ``Mommy Party,'' one that is strong on social issues but not on national defense like the Republican ``Daddy Party.''
Democrats say they have to address the issue of national defense directly, especially with women. ``The Republicans succeeded in playing the terrorism card last time,'' said Ellen Malcolm, president of Emily's List, a group that raises money for and trains Democratic women candidates. ``We have to convince women that we Democrats are tough on terrorism.''
Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean said the key to victory in November will be to ``nationalize'' the election. Instead of each candidate running on local issues within his or her district, Dean said, all Democrats should stress such issues as ``honesty and openness in government'' and ``a strong national defense that depends on truth and adequately equipping our soldiers.''
Taking Back the House
``I am not ready to say we will take back the House and Senate,'' Dean said in an interview. ``But we will take back the House and probably the Senate if we run a national campaign.'' If Democrats do gain control, he said, Republicans should expect to be investigated: ``If we get subpoena power'' in congressional committees, ``the corruption will come out on America's TV screens, and that scares the daylights out of the Republicans.'' he said.
At the moment, Democrats aren't even united over how united they should be. Bayh says unity is overrated, especially in a Congress, where there are competing Democratic factions.
``Instead of taking a strong, compelling position, it gets watered-down and mushy because you are seeking consensus,'' Bayh said in an interview. ``Before the last midterm elections, I was in a meeting of the Democratic caucus in January or February.
``Three thousand Americans had just been killed in a terrorist strike, and our folks said Medicare and Social Security were the issues to run on,'' Bayh said. ``Why? It was the only thing they could all agree on! Clearly, national security was going to determine the election, but it got dropped from the list.''
Divided on Iraq
While the Democrats are united in a desire for a strong message on national security, they are divided over what to do about American military involvement in Iraq -- and whether the issue should even be talked about
Terry McAuliffe, chairman of the Democratic National Committee under Bill Clinton and a confidant of New York Senator Hillary Clinton, believes the subject of troop withdrawal should be avoided. ``The second we get in a debate about do we stay or do we go from Iraq, we lose,'' McAuliffe said. ``This election cannot be a debate on when the troops are coming home. This party will lose on that. It has to be about how George Bush has made us less safe.''
``We are not unified on Iraq, but we are unified on a fairly serious critique of what Bush has done wrong there,'' said Steve Elmendorf, who was chief of staff to former Representative Dick Gephardt of Missouri and worked in Massachusetts Senator John Kerry's 2004 presidential campaign.
The Uniter
The biggest motivator for rank-and-file Democrats is Bush himself, Elmendorf said. ``It is unbelievable, the level of dislike for Bush,'' he said. ``The intensity is unlike anything I have ever seen.''
Democrats are encouraged by polls showing the public turning against Bush on the Iraq war and his handling of terrorism. The Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll found that for the first time, a majority of Americans, 54 percent, disapprove of how Bush has dealt with terrorism. The poll, conducted from Feb. 25 to March 1, found that almost two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Bush's handling of Iraq.
Democrats also showed uncharacteristic unity in quickly opposing an administration plan to let a Dubai state-owned company operate facilities at six U.S. ports, gaining a rare upper hand on Bush on the national-security issue. The Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll found that 58 percent of Americans oppose the ports plan.
Rove and Shrum
While Karl Rove, President Bush's chief political adviser, has signaled that security will still be a major campaign issue for Republicans this year, Bob Shrum, Kerry's senior political adviser in 2004, says such a message won't work this time.
``September 11, what else do they have?'' he said. ``But it won't be enough. True, we don't have a clear message on the war. We have differences internally. It won't matter. This election will be a referendum on Bush, not what the Democrats will do.''
Howard Wolfson, a spokesman for Senator Clinton, said ``the American people know there is one party in control of Washington, they know that party is not doing their business, and an argument based on balance and oversight will resonate, and resonate strongly.''
That argument has one big downside for Democrats: If they do regain control of Congress this year, they would have to argue against ``balance'' when they ask voters to re-elect a Democratic Congress and elect a Democratic president in 2008.
``You know, that's the kind of problem that I can live with,'' Wolfson said. |
