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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (183051)	3/6/2006 5:16:56 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 281500

I dont think the winner in iraq will be zarquawi. For them to win, iraq or sunni part of iraq would have to accept or at least be open to, talibanization. It depends. There have been tribe on tribe conflict in the Anbar province, as some tribes have sided with Zarqawi, and others who refused to be intimidated. But the battles are won by the most organized and violent groups. And as I've stated previously, I believe that there is collaboration between Zarqawi and former Regime Intelligence and security forces, if not the relatives of Saddam Hussein, the latter of which have the organization and finances (outside of Iraq) to win at least the temporary loyalty of certain tribes who see this as a chance to dominate those tribes who had previously dominated them. Losing iraq as we envisioned it will be embarrassing but nothing strategic will necessarily be lost. No.. nothing but the second largest oil reserves in the world. And the fact that a Zarqawi victory may just energize the Islamo-Fascists in Saudi Arabia to overthrow the Royal Family and combine forces.. I hate to say it, or make an analogy, but there is a bit of "domino theory" here because we're in a battle of competing ideologies and the people in the region don't have much of a marketplace of ideas available to them. Giving up in Afghanistan might be a different scenario because ours (and the world's) vital economic interests aren't put at risk there. But in the Persian Gulf it's a different story. Lord knows that I'm not big on the Saudis since I believe they are corrupt and have been facilitating Wahabbism in order to deter any potential attempts to overthrow them. But I want to put off that day of reckoning as long as possible since it will require a far greater nation mobilization than we've currently seen. We'll be in a situation of taking on the entire Muslim world if we have to go to war with the Saudis. I would prefer to see Iraq become a economic and political model that will decrease the appeal of the Wahabbists to young Saudis who lack social advancement and who are susceptible to the brainwashing of the Islamo-Fascists. Hawk