To: DuckTapeSunroof who wrote (729674 ) 3/7/2006 9:00:48 AM From: PROLIFE Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 769670 Abortion, Parental Notification, and the NY Times 03/06/06 10:46 AM This morning, the New York Times reports on a statistical analysis that it performed on state abortion data. According to the paper, “laws that require minors to notify their parents or get permission to have an abortion do not appear to have produced [a] sharp drop in teenage abortion rates.” The paper goes on to describe how its analysis of data from six states found no clear effect of notification laws but rather “a scattering of divergent trends.” This would seem to be damning news for those who have argued that state-level restrictions on abortion, such as parental-notification laws, tend to reduce the incidence of abortions. Of course, to be damning, a report must be grounded in reality. This one is not. Economist Michael New of the University of Alabama and a sometimes Heritage visiting fellow calls the Times’s statistical acrobatics “pretty laughable.” In an email this morning, New points out that the Times’s problems begin with its choice of data: First and foremost, the authors analyze only six states and get their data from state health departments, which are notoriously unreliable. In fact, it was data from state health departments that allowed Glen Stassen to (wrongly) conclude that abortions had increased under the Bush administration. Real researchers on abortion—on whatever side of the debate—almost unanimously use data from the Centers for Disease Control or the Alan Guttmacher Institute for this very reason. Using data from the CDC and from NARAL (a pro-abortion advocacy group formerly known as the “National Abortion Rights Action League”), New neatly rebuts the Times’s primary conclusion: In 1990 Minnesota passed a parental involvement law. In 1989 the teen abortion rate was 12.92 abortions for every thousand women age 13-17. In 1999 the teen abortion rate was 6.00 abortions for every thousand women age 13-17—a decline of 53.6%. In 1993 Mississippi passed a parental involvement law. In 1992 the teen abortion rate was 7.29 abortions for every thousand women age 13-17. In 1999 the teen abortion rate was 3.44 abortions for every thousand women age 13-17—a decline of 52.8%. In 1989 Georgia passed a parental involvement law. In 1988 the teen abortion rate was 18.33 abortions for every thousand women age 13-17. In 1999 the teen abortion rate was 11.42 abortions for every thousand women age 13-17—a decline of 37.7%. In 1991 Nebraska passed a parental involvement law. In 1990 the teen abortion rate was 13.31 abortions for every thousand women age 13-17. In 1999 the teen abortion rate was 6.85 abortions for every thousand women age 13-17—a decline of 48.5%. In 1997 Virginia passed a parental involvement law. In 1996 the teen abortion rate was 15.10 abortions for every thousand women age 13-17. In 1999 the teen abortion rate was 11.23 abortions for every thousand women age 13-17—a decline of 25.6%. Interested readers may wish to peruse this recent research paper by New that finds that parental-notification laws have a statistically-significant and considerable effect on abortion rates. heritage.org