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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: auriculatus who wrote (29154)	3/8/2006 5:28:13 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95737

It IS a tough one to figure out. <<This group is the most illogical one out there.>> This has been such a cyclical industry in the past, the analysts are all trying to "guess" when the bottom is going to fall out again. Since they are trying to look out many months, and even years, their prognostications mean essentially nothing. However, the people who don't have a chance to study the market every day take their word at face value and make the market "move". To know that the analysts are just guessing at next years results lets look at one example taken from, nasdaq.com AMAT has 12 month price target estimates from 14 to 35 - that's over a 2 to 1 ratio. Other semi-equip companies show the same type of price target spreads. If the analysts can't make up their mind, how can we mere mortals expect to figure it out?:) Don

To: auriculatus who wrote (29154)	3/8/2006 11:21:22 PM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95737

Hi Auri - this chart is clearly an eye opener independent of macro conditions over the last 10 years or so: us.f1.yahoofs.com 1.) Every time AMAT stock peaked prior to bookings peak regardless of interest rates, oil price or presidential election year. Up cycles usually last 9 months or so. Once we know the cycle turns up "good news" usually prevails for a similar time period. We don't question whether up cycle continues on a monthly base - once it turns (either direction) the up or down movement in bookings prevails for several quarters. 2.) Based on the cycles shown on Gottfried's chart one can notice that AMAT stock price peaks ahead of bookings peak prior to Y2K (Y2K appeared to be an "excursion" where AMAT stock price ignored the temporary pause in bookings growth, after pausing bookings kept going up but stock price peaked about 6 months ahead of actual bookings peak). In 2004 AMAT peaked 8 months or so prior to bookings peak 3.) LRCX stock price movement was unusual because the "financial community" was way, way off about LRCX earnings potential and LRCX stock price came very close to peak in 2000/2001 - AMAT did not and neither NVLS 4.) Why would it be different this time? I believe yearly highs have been put in (as you know I was probably one of the most bullish posters in 2005 but change my mind based on "lesson learned" studying Gottfried's chart regardless of interest rates jitters, oil jitters or presidential election year jitters. I moved my Micron money plus profit into INTC (as mentioned sold my Micron with close to 40% gain over 2 1/2 year time period). I'm not sure if Intel is slam dunk because cell phones that nowadays include audio and eventually video could challenge the laptop the way we know/use it today. INTC appears to push WiMax but Broadcom seems to have different opinion; perhaps a "super" cell phone could overtake some functions that laptops provide today. Right now a lot of capex is going into NAND flash and if any over capacity is created it's probably in NAND flash - Samsung, Toshiba, Mintel, Hynix. However cheap NAND could open the doors to new applications like the Apple Nano "blitz" did and soak up capacity. Also Vista could spur demand for DRAM and cell phone could spur mobile and specialty RAM. It's hard to turn "downish" in view of good news but to me that's how the cookie crumbles.