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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (23518)	3/10/2006 9:08:59 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78751

Sold my TRMA and CHK today for a small profit. Gas draws #'s were weak today and inventories high, i suspect that we will see some weak numbers in the sector pretty soon. I am holding CVX since it's less vulnerable to NG gas pricing right now (not that the stock seem to care CVX is a weakest of the three). I will be watching for a reentry point into CHK in particular. I established a position in INTC in the recent weakness. This is a 2007 recovery story - the new dualcore chips should be the first step towards a rebound, I hope.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (23518)	11/2/2006 12:32:33 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78751

Anybody checked in the bankrupty plays OC and AWI. both are asbestos related bankrupties and recently emerged. the filings make an interesting read. OC - the way i see it. 134.1M shares are going to be issued. 2B$ in debt. Morgan had a backstop @30$ on 70M shares for 100M$ so they are currently under water. Total EV value 134.128$+2B$=5.75B$. Revenues: 6.3B$, 800M$ EBITDA, 250M$ net income. sec.gov There is a chance that 28M shares will not be issued contingent upon Fair act legislation> i do not know how likely this is, so i put in the mex. amount of shares for valuation purposes. AWI - 56.4M shares. 1.12B$ debt. EV value 56.437$+1.12B$=3.19B$. Revenues 3.6B$, 100M$ net earnings. In both cases, valuation looks fairly rich to me. Have i overlooked something? Post bankrupty stocks are supposed to be cheap !?