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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: THE WATSONYOUTH who wrote (189147)	3/8/2006 11:04:47 PM
From: eracer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Does anyone have a guess as to how soon Intel will convert Celeron to dual core? Good question. The Intel roadmap at Tom's Hardware from a while back showed a single core Millville due in early 2007. I assumed that would be the next Celeron, and dual-core Celeron wouldn't be introduced until mid-2007 or later. But the retail Pentium D 805 priced at $138 from newegg.com practically serves as a dual-core Celeron right now.

To: THE WATSONYOUTH who wrote (189147)	3/8/2006 11:19:18 PM
From: grimes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

TWY I seriously doubt available cash is a meaningful constraint on AMD 2006 cap ex. They are prematurely paying debt at relatively low rates (7.5 percent or so IIRC, certainly lower than the likely ROI on new equipment) and could easily raise $ 1 billion via equity and/or lower (than 7.5 %) rate debt, plus they have ~ 1.5 bil cash net of debt on hand. They are also likely generating prodigious amounts of otherwise (than capex)free cash flow. If fitting out Fab 36 at added capital outlay of (say) $ 750 mil could alleviate anticipated production constraints they could do it in a heartbeat. Assuming they are not cash constrained, how quickly could they bring Fab 36 up to the rated capacity of the building envelope (21000wspm IIRC)? and what does this do tho their capacity when it is fully operational?

To: THE WATSONYOUTH who wrote (189147)	3/9/2006 6:31:11 AM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 275872

Re: how soon Intel will convert Celeron to dual core? It's going to be marketing driven, and Intel continues to control most of the Industry's marketing. When Vista goes gold in a couple of months, it may result in a pretty compelling case for dual-core, 64-bit CPUs. There are a lot of systems that fail one or both of those criteria, and that could accelerate a lot of system replacements. We could see an annual demand rate that's considerably higher than 250m beginning some time in Q3 and ramping quickly. If Intel and AMD can back off from their knife fight and both focus on getting out the message that a Billion single core and/or 32-bit PCs need to be replaced, the next couple years could be bonanzas for both companies. Since Intel has been ramping production faster, it's to their benefit to boost demand sooner rather than later, so we could see a great business environment for CPUs as soon as Q3.