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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (49896)3/9/2006 1:19:03 PM
From: Lizzie TudorRespond to of 306849
 
well I've said all along that the "statistics" that NAR puts out distort prices to the high side pretty dramatically at least when a market decline first starts. Nothing they can do, of course, if people decide to pull in their homes vs. selling them for an actual price of 30-40% below what they "thought" they could get.

That initial drop, which I believe happens (30%+ down from very peak) happens pretty sudden, but statistics don't show it, because buyers go through this sort of denial period and refuse to sell, or hold out for peak prices (thats what I am seeing here). Inventory builds up and then finally a year later you have real declines.

The problem is, RE agents crow about how much things have gone up based on their statistics long after the peak.



To: John Vosilla who wrote (49896)3/9/2006 1:20:36 PM
From: Think4YourselfRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
Here's a little math trick we might see the realtors play later this year. Has to do with percentages. They say something like "we are only down 18% this year but we were up 20% last year". Your average Joe Schmoe thinks he is up 2% but...

$100K up 20% = $120K
$120K down 18% = $98.4K

Whoops, that apparent 2% gain is really a net loss of 1.6%

Have seen this game played often over the years.


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