Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (29238)	3/9/2006 10:22:37 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95936

Don, the last cyclical top was in March 2000. It took 20 months to get to the actual bottom in October 2002. I made your chart longer to show it: finance.yahoo.com The historical numbers I have followed suggest that it takes eleven months on average to find a cyclical bottom from a market top. Think that sounds too long? It's not... Try looking back at the SOX chart in 1997 to 1998. What was that 11, 12 months or even a bit longer? While you're at it take in some of the negative divergences in place now: investorshub.com Of course none of this means the market will do anything other than what it wants to do rather than what I predict it will do. RtS

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (29238)	3/10/2006 12:02:48 AM
From: sammy™ -_-	Respond to of 95936

very good observation; we might have one-half of the carbon copy of SOX correction this year

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (29238)	3/10/2006 1:33:13 AM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95936

If you go to Gottfrieds chart on chip sales and semi-equip bookings, notice that chip sales were in the 10 to 13B range during 02. Some commentators are calling 2002 a "recovery year". Some recovery! IC revenue growth was likely around one percent, following a 32 percent decline in 2001. tsmc.com