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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (49942)	3/10/2006 12:49:17 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

silicon valley is recovering dramatically which (imho) is the entire reason for the good jobs figure today. I am not surprised the jobs figure is good. I have thought for some time to have a real economy, meaning a growing economy we needed either silicon valley, detroit or one of the other "manufacturing" areas to heat up. These aren't really mfg anymore but the point I am trying to get at is we need somebody in the US to build something and sell it to get this economy off the ground. It started last year, late, here, spearheaded by google and some other companies. The entire period we have had for this real estate boom has been funny money imho. People were not better off they were spending via debt. Thats different than when we get a tech recovery and SALARIES actually rise. The other thing that happens when salaries rise is taxes get paid and this awful deficit gets ratcheted down a little (of course as long as bush is in, we are in debt hell no way around it) This week has been a terrible week for my tech stocks which are google, apple, sirf, broadcom, crm you know all the up-and-comers. A real mini-crasheroo. But this isn't like the 02 crash or 03 crash in tech and we have had so many of those. This is more like the crash in 90/91 that lost a lot of people a lot of money but it was obvious that the foundations for growth in the future were there. 90/91 and later 94 were buy ops, thats what I think this is. The problem with intel is there is a very real chance they will be passed by by the new leaders in semis. I am not a semi expert so I don't want to get into a philosophical argument but the chip leaders are brcm, sirf, amd and others. Intel is not in the leadership category, this time and at a recent conference I listed to the analyst say that broadcom has the chance to become the largest semi compnay in the us. It was an obvious slam against intel. Anyway cycles like this always produce new leaders and the old guard kind of comes along for the ride so hard to say where intel fits in. I like intel's apple deal, so they aren't in the unenviable msft position here but it is unclear. anyway net net since I believe this is a real recovery, one along the lines of a 90s style recovery I see this mkt correction in tech as a buy op. But who knows RE could plow us back into recession, And then its best to stay away. Place your bets