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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly Buy and Sell Set Ups -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fp_scientist who wrote (8234)	3/12/2006 8:55:15 AM
From: chowder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13449

Re: PQ ... There is a significant difference between the price action in NBR and the price action in PQ, in the example you provided. You are focusing on the 40 week moving average and that's the last thing I was focusing on. I was focusing on price dropping below a swing low and, the price movement came on incredible volume. It's that selling volume that had priority with the NBR pull back, not the fact that price was dropping below the 40 week moving average. Price dropping below the 40 week moving average, given the amount of volume that preceded the move, merely confirmed that it was time to sell. The PQ price drop below the 40 week moving average, back in June, was on weak volume. The price drop, at that time, wasn't about professional or institutional selling, it was about buyers being on strike. As price came down to longer term support, the buyers showed up and the move was more powerful because of the lack of professional selling. >>> What other indicator --if any-- was giving a "HOLD" signal at the time? <<< None. I wouldn't have been holding the stock at that time. There was nothing in the charts suggesting I should even be in the trade. A buy signal appeared within days of hitting the low, but that doesn't help us now. >>> Some people saying is a value play based on cash flow -etc, worth 13-14 bucks. I would not touch it, would you? <<< Nope. I wouldn't touch it at this time. Why tie up funds in a stock that is under performing at this time? There are other stocks that look like they are on the verge of breaking out. That's where the money should go. Time is money! dabum

To: fp_scientist who wrote (8234)	3/12/2006 9:04:34 AM
From: ridingycurve	Respond to of 13449

delete

To: fp_scientist who wrote (8234)	3/12/2006 4:21:22 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13449

I think I need to respond to this: >>> interesting analysis ... but every example has a counter-example? <<< Trading with TA is a process, not an event. If we were playing baseball and the game was on the line, when a player goes up to the plate, he's looking for a pitch he can drive, to score the winning run. He may let several pitches go by, some even strikes, without swinging. He's looking for a pitch that he knows, from experience, that he can hit with a high probability of success. That's what trading is all about. It's about the process of identifying low risk, high probability set ups. We need to let the counter-examples go by. We don't need to swing at them, even if they are a strike. We're looking for the set ups that provide us with a pitch we can handle. We still may make an out, but the odds, over time, favor our success. The process of trading includes looking for low risk entries with a reward to risk ratio of at least 2-1. It includes setting a price target where you will take some of your profits off the table. It includes using an initial stop, a price point that tells you that your set up was wrong and the process of trading includes using trailing stops to maximize your gains and not give those profits back to the market. Profit targets and stops can vary according to the length of time one wishes to hold a position, but they must be used to insure the process of trading has the ability to succeed. dabum