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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BUGGI-WO who wrote (189441)	3/12/2006 4:28:25 PM
From: eracer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

So I'm asking myself, what Intel wanted to say, as they showed NGA devices which doesn't play a huge role for the next 6 months. When I keep in mind that NGA is around 10% in Q3 and 20% in Q4, I go with Cravey and think, what the hell they want to do with 90% 9xx/Celeron and 80% 9xx/Celeron share in Q3 and Q4? These are incredible huge volumes which Intel has to sell and which are loosers compared to NGA, which comes not from me, it comes from Intel itself. I'm thinking of the pricing strategy which they will drive and asking myself, at what levels will the price 9xx, if NGA is so heavily in front and sells for around 500$ (top-bin) a piece? Will they sell top 9xx bins for 200-300$? Ask yourself how realistic this if, if you have to sell 90 or 80%? Think about the ASP implications from this move. Yet as my previous link showed that is what the rumored price cuts are expected to be. The entire 9xx series are supposed to be priced from $178-$314 in Q3. Why consider cuts like this to be a "price war"? In fact every AMD investor should be saying "It's about time!". Not only will these CPUs have to be sold concurrently with Conroe, but they will have to compete against current and revision F AMD parts before, during and after the Conroe launch. The market is speaking and telling Intel "Your crap is overpriced." So what does Intel do if they don't lower prices? Throw them in the dumpster? Stuff the channel even more? Warehouse the wafers and finished products? Sell them to China for pennies on the dollar at a later time? Some or all of the above? Keeping CPUs off the market means more socket wins for AMD and helps AMD's ASPs as well. In my eyes lowering prices on non-NGA parts has little to do with gaining Intel marketshare back, but just being able to sell what they produce and preventing even faster marketshare erosion. AMD doesn't have worries for the next few quarters because they have the superior desktop product and can sell everything they can produce. Could you imagine the hit on ASPs and volumes Intel would be taking now if FAB36 ramped up a year earlier? And why assume Intel's Q2 and Q3 won't be a disaster? They already shaved a half billion off of Q1's forecast. Is anyone prepared to go long on Intel because the worst is supposedly over after Q1? Not me. Once again, decimation of Netburst ASPs is something that should be expected. It merely lowers Intel's price/performance ratio to near that of AMD's. Isn't equivalent ASPs something AMD investors have wanted to see for years? Sorry I didn't put myself on ignore myself for longer. :)