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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (189614)	3/13/2006 7:36:18 PM
From: eracer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: Is it just a coincidence that this is the same time frame arrival of AMD Fab 36 parts on the market? It is possible that Intel was holding off aggressive price moves as long as AMD was capacity limited (INTC probably underestimated AMD's capacity, BTW), but Intel is not willing to lose any more market share, no more than one 200mm fab worth of output? It could in part be related to FAB36. It could also be that Intel is bringing more 65-nm capacity online and/or are improving 65-nm yields.

To: Joe NYC who wrote (189614)	3/14/2006 7:37:36 AM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

"but Intel is not willing to lose any more market share, " It's no longer a given that INTC can stem the erosion eeven by offering like price/performance or better now that major market players are familiar with AMD's high quality value laden offerings. Too costly for INTC to do so! AMD's momentum is currently tacking on approx 1% revenue share per quarter and has seen revenue share grow from about 13.5% to 15% in Q4, probably 16% in Q1, and perhaps 18% to 20% by Q4. AMD's servershare continues to grow and, after mobile x2's appear in May, one might anticipate some serious mobile share grab by AMD throughout Q3 and Q4. Assuming 2006 CPU revenues for AMD and INTC combined of $36B to $40B, one can anticipate AMD revenues of $5.5B to $6.5B, assuming 16% AMD revenue share, with each additional 1% adding approx. $375M in revenues. Of that $38B in combined (AMD + INTC) 2006 revenues, approx. $13B comprises mobile. If AMD's mobile X2's bring the impact to the mobile segment that some think possible, AMD could see a $1B additional revenue share grab in the mobile segment alone in Q3 and Q4. Obviously, I'm not in the Ross camp, given my assumption that AMD stands to continue growing servershare revenues in 2006 as while perhaps experiencing an explosion in mobile share revenues, now that AMD has turned its focus to the mobile segment, not dissimilar to the growth curve we've witnessed in the server space.