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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Petz who wrote (189664)	3/14/2006 2:50:27 AM
From: THE WATSONYOUTH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

I believe the answer is 4. AMD will have 1 at the end of the year. Insanity. /Petz I just listened to IDF. Intel says they currently have (2) 65 nm fabs in production (one since Oct 05) They say they will have 4 in production by year end. They say crossover (90nm to 65nm) will occur in Q3 of this year. I take that to mean crossover on a wafer start basis. They finally claim they will ship more than 60 million dual core chips this year. Lets say 63M. That would represent only one third of the 190M I projected for Intel in 06. Sounds impressive? It's not. Based on 63M for the year, I would guess the crossover is later in Q3 rather than earlier. Let's say Sept 1. Thus, it would seem to take Intel about 11 months to ramp to 50% 65nm wafer starts. I'm guessing AMD will start 65nm production in Aug. This should allow for a significant 65nm launch in Q4. They claim they will be fully converted by mid 07. Let's say July 1. So AMD will likely convert 100% to 65nm in the same time it takes Intel to convert 50%. At least based on what Intel said, it does not sound like we will see dual core celerons in Q3 and likely not in Q4. If so, AMD should not have capacity issues unless the total market grows tremendously and AMD gains very significant share. The 60M figure I used as an optimistic case should be reachable. That's a huge increase over the 41M from 05. THE WATSONYOUTH