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To: seen-the-light who wrote (1328)	3/14/2006 7:31:49 PM
From: balaw	Respond to of 1694

No guts, no glory! Well at least you will be able to sleep better tonight than I will! lol. I think it has much more to go short term. When Chevron releases news of its find in Block 1, which is rumored to be an "elephant field" that spreads under block 2, the JDZ will be validated. All ERHC's ducks are lining up. I have seen all sorts of predictions on share price. I like this one taken off I-Hub: From SFreed on Elephantfields: "I await with great anticipation the final announcement of deals with the partners in each block. I think we can expect ERHC to come away with fully carried positions of between 18.5-21% in Block 2, 10-12.5% in Block 3 and 16-18.5% in Block 4. If we end up with 45 percentage points of the 300 points awarded across the three blocks it would be enourmous and we couldn't expect any more than that. 50 points would be astronomical and a testiment to the deal making abilities of Offor and Brandhuber. Everyone can do the math from there." The math is, for every billion barrels: 1bb over the 3 blocks x 1/6th (50 of 300) over 20 years = 8.3mm barrels per year x $35/barrel after recovery costs = $300mm/yr * 50% (taxes and royalties) = $150mm top line to ERHE/year. ERHE has no overhead, so put that almost straight to the bottom line. $150mm EBITDA, or about 20 cents a share. What do producing oil companies trade at, 15 times? That's a $3.00 stock price for each billion barrels. How many billion barrels are there in blocks 2, 3 and 4 combined??? And that is before more exploration/production possibilities in the region, which I know they are after. The math is almost unbelieveable...