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Pastimes : Trade Blogg Ideas Inter Alia -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rutgers who wrote (202)	3/31/2006 4:22:40 PM
From: Rutgers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 285

401 K update - made a move before EOD DOw closed at ~ 11,109 this afternoon. This was not antipicated when I went got out of all long funds two weeks ago. But, with the Dow down more than 100 pts since then (and, btw, I did fail to call the top, but I wasn't really trying to call the top inasmuch as I am restricted to EOD calls...besides I am still ahead by catching it on this side of the trade). I went back long at EOD primarily for two reasons: first, studies have shown that the first trading day of each month is historically strong due to in-flows and second, mkt held up much better than I expected during the last two weeks...so maybe we can get a bounce back up next week. Don't misunderstand, I am of the school of thought that believes in the four-year cycle lows and when combined with the absence of a 10% move down in close to three years...I gotta believe that 10% move to the downside is likely before the end of October... so...I am rolling the dice a little here hoping for a bounce and then I can return to the sidelines. Responding To Message #202 from Rutgers at 3/15/2006 4:36:37 PM 401 K update - made a move before EOD DOw closed at 11,210 this afternoon. The last move - go to primarily all long - was made on Dec. 9th when the DOW closed at 10,778. So, this move was good for more than 400 pts on the Upside. I think it is time to protect profits inasmuch as 16 of the last 19 weeks after March exp. have been down weeks...I truly hope that the DOW's run continues b/c I want to unwind a few long positions and perhaps short the S&P if it does go higher before end of this week. Responding To Message #134 from Rutgers at 12/9/2005 4:25:43 PM 401 K update - made a move DOw closed at 10,778 this afternoon. On Nov. 29th, I made my last move when the DOw closed at 10,888. Since the odds (76% historical ave.) favor next week as an up week ala Santa Rally, I moved the funds long again from ~cash. So, one to look at this move is that I have pocketed more than 100 pts, but my goal was to capture a bigger move. Let's see what happens over the next two weeks. Responding To Message #130 from Rutgers at 11/29/2005 4:49:57 PM Since some readings are saying that the mkt hasn't been this frothy in a bullish way since 2001, I figure it may be time for a sizable pull back. My 401 K trades, as most of you know, are tied to extreme overbought/oversold conditions. So far, this system has worked pretty well although there could be improvements. Anyway, based upon this data, I moved a nice portion from MidCap to SA fund. Now, ideally, I would love to see a 2 or 300 pt pullback w/i next week. Then, I would turnaround and reverse course, but we'll have to see how this plays out for now. If she d/n pullback here, and moves on to Dow 11K, then I will likely move the rest of the equities to bonds or stable assets. Responding To Message #69 from Rutgers at 6/24/2005 4:20:21 PM 401 k - made yet another new move at EOD With the Dow closing just under 10,300, I moved another slug from SA fund to the FA Fund. I have one more big slug I could move, but I prefer to put on my rally cap at this point.