Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (56071)	3/17/2006 11:28:36 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Disclaimer: not investment advice but could be hell of a trading idea. The most exciting stock this morning in our arena got to be WLS. The General once again is proposing to take the company private, as he did last year. Back then, the offer price was around 82. While it did not happen, the stock went up to almost mid 100s. Today, biz.yahoo.com Now this is a real tender with a real date and a real price, not just talk, so we have to take that as real. Needless to say, with less than one month to tender, the stock should go to around 93. But there are 2 major "problems" Huge insider and institution ownership. finance.yahoo.com Huge short position compounded by a thinly traded stock. shortsqueeze.com So there are around 670k shares shorted that are going to have to cover at 93. If they all wait for April 13, that is their limit assuming all long holders tender their shares. Of course there is the risk that longs will not tender but hold out for a higher price, then it would be logical for the shorts to cover now. So the shorts that are covering now either decided to just throw in the towel or are concerned that the stock will run up like last year. On the long side, those who plan on tendering April 13 will receive 93. Logically, they would gladly take the 100 right now and receive a $7 bonus. On the other hand, the longs who are not selling obviously believe the company is undervalued at 93 and expects more. The stage is set. 937k traded as I type. $7 above tender price. Here are the options. If you think most long shareholders believe the company is not even worth 93, then it is a great short here because they will all tender at 93 in one month and you can pocket $7. If you think the company is worth more. Then it is hard to play. One factor being this is a major shareholder taking the company private, not a takeover or merger. The likelihood of a "competing" bid is almost nil. Further more, there is only one no-name analyst covering this stock and his estimates had been pretty far off. WLS themselves just guided down from 20ish to 15ish in earnings this year. Now the game is defined - place your bets.

To: ild who wrote (56071)	3/17/2006 3:35:02 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

GOLD - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. Code-088691 FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 03/14/06 \| --------------------------------------------------------------\| NONREPORTABLE NON-COMMERCIAL \| COMMERCIAL \| TOTAL \| POSITIONS --------------------------\|-----------------\|-----------------\|----------------- LONG \| SHORT \|SPREADS \| LONG \| SHORT \| LONG \| SHORT \| LONG \| SHORT -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (CONTRACTS OF 100 TROY OUNCES) OPEN INTEREST: 322,360 COMMITMENTS 143,697 47,757 44,644 78,233 208,569 266,574 300,970 55,786 21,390 CHANGES FROM 03/07/06 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -15,965) -23,447 1,502 -1,528 6,751 -12,664 -18,224 -12,690 2,259 -3,275 PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS 44.6 14.8 13.8 24.3 64.7 82.7 93.4 17.3 6.6 NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 246) 135 53 46 36 40 194 121 . S&P 500 STOCK INDEX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-138741 FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 03/14/06 \| --------------------------------------------------------------\| NONREPORTABLE NON-COMMERCIAL \| COMMERCIAL \| TOTAL \| POSITIONS --------------------------\|-----------------\|-----------------\|----------------- LONG \| SHORT \|SPREADS \| LONG \| SHORT \| LONG \| SHORT \| LONG \| SHORT -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (S&P 500 INDEX X $250.00) OPEN INTEREST: 739,997 COMMITMENTS 66,542 42,357 20,467 484,643 547,447 571,652 610,271 168,345 129,726 CHANGES FROM 03/07/06 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 44,307) 583 -5,998 8,460 14,464 21,833 23,507 24,295 20,800 20,012 PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS 9.0 5.7 2.8 65.5 74.0 77.3 82.5 22.7 17.5 NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 183) 35 34 22 94 69 146 109