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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (56305)	3/20/2006 6:38:35 PM
From: TimbaBear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I have double pane low energy argon gas filled windows. Were those part of the basket 30, 40, or 50 years ago? Do you believe they have an integral place in a "representative" basket today? If the answer to both questions is "No!" then this is the definition of a strawman argument. What about air conditioning in cars, am/fm cd players standard, better brakes, etc etc etc all standard. You want to compare that to a car from 1964 and conclude cars are more expensive? Get real. You get real! A new car today is just as spiffy for the person buying it as a new car of yesteryear. You talk about people being brainwashed and yet you buy into this hedonic crap like it was the second Coming! A new car is a new car. Yes the bells and whistles are different today than they were 30 years ago and, yes, they will be different 30 years from now, so what? Its primary purpose hasn't changed and the rest is all fluff. Compare "standardly equipped" to "standardly equipped" in constant dollars. The hedonics are invaluable for confusing the issues and that's part of their purpose. I am not denigrating anyone's lifestyle.... Bull! Yes you were. You were denigrating it by assuming they were living beyond their means instead of assuming that affordability wasn't an issue. A persistent increase in the level of consumer prices or a persistent decline in the purchasing power of money, caused by an increase in available currency and credit beyond the proportion of available goods and services. Mish, I know your definition of inflation, you repeat it here and everywhere ad nauseum. Repetition does not make the argument sounder, nor does screaming at those who don't buy into it. Yet you don't or won't explain how a phenomenal increase in Japanese money supply hasn't led to inflation. Your argument has as many chinks in it as anyone else's but you refuse to give them the full merit you give to the chinks you pick in other's positions. That isn't being objective. This is not "La La Land" other than people's failure to understand cause and effect. Well sometimes my friend one warps one perceptions to see what they want to see and thus the effects they see have the causality they predicted. That's not true cause and effect and those that call it as something different may not live in LALA land, in spite of your opinions of them. The Austrian School has a great many things right about how economic issues are related. But those who claim it as a mantle for their opinions often differ widely in those opinions. I'll take Marc Faber's read on the issues over yours any day and I believe he's Austrian School. Inflation is a change in prices, don't over-think it. It may usually be caused by over printing money and/or over extending credit, but not always. When living through historic times it can be the "not always" qualifier that holds the keep to more timely understanding of things economic. This whole thread started because you challenged the board to relate inflation experiences higher than your own. You are getting some anectdotal evidence as requested. You can choose to say its all lifestyle or that it doesn't represent the mainstream but to ignore that it might also be interpreted as a significant slice of the mainstream experience is (IMO) to move closer to LALA land residency than it is to hone your theories on the whetstone of the current reality. Timba

To: mishedlo who wrote (56305)	3/20/2006 9:22:42 PM
From: suanny	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Mish I believe the question we all are debating with ourselves about is when the bubbles are resolved one way or the other,will we be seeing higher or lower prices on the basket of goods I personally purchase every month.Also how will the purchasing power of any of my investments fare in that time.I like John believe I have experienced double digit increases of prices in my basket for the last 3 to 4 years,however if my income were much higher I probably would be purchasing more goods that have dropped in price and my experience with double digit price increases overall would be much lower.One item I have a lot of experience buying is a gallon of milk on my way home at the 7-11 store in which I rarely use due to high prices,but 4 years ago $2.65 a gallon didn't seem to bad.Within 1 year the price at that store nearly doubled to approx.$5.00.Since then the price has backed off to approx $4.00 and could purchase the same gallon at cosco 15 miles away for $3.00 in any event the price at 7-11 is still up 40%.I believe the debt bubble should resolve itself in deflation;but, I'd be more comfortable if I was experiencing as much in the way of lower prices overall like you Mish.One aspect of the Mish argument for deflation has to do with the bankers not wanting to be repaid with cheaper money.It seems to me that has been the case for some time especially in the 70s,and would be a better option than having houses that are depreciating in value and needing to be heated and maintained on their books.Also a guy on Financial Sense this weekend suggested that wage arbitrage would be neutralized by potectionism,causing higher prices in an otherwise deflationary situation ,would like to hear your thoughts on these Mish.