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To: ms.smartest.person who wrote (854)3/21/2006 4:18:31 PM
From: ms.smartest.person  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3198
 
Is It Time to Steer Clear of Indonesia?

By Jon A. Nones
20 Mar 2006 at 05:07 PM EST

St. LOUIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- After weeks of relentless protests staged against Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine, it would appear Newmont is the next target. But as most of us know, Newmont is no stranger to trouble in Indonesia. When is it time to say enough is enough in this volatile country?

Barely one month after Newmont Mining [NYSE:NEM] agreed to pay Indonesia $30 million to settle a civil suit over pollution at Buyat Bay, an unidentified group of 50 people today torched a worker camp on the company’s Sumbawa Island property.

According to various press wires, the assailants were demanding unspecified amounts of “compensation” for the exploration activity. Newmont was forced to close the Elang camp and suspend exploration in the area, but work at its massive Batu Hijau copper-gold mine on the island was unaffected.

Fortunately, no one was injured in the attack, which is more than we can say for the ongoing protests aimed at Freeport-McMoRan [NYSE:FCX].

Just last week, three policemen and a soldier in Indonesia's Papua province died in clashes with protesters over Freeport-McMoran’s Grasberg mine. Around 19 other police officers had to be rushed to the hospital due to injuries.

Freeport was forced to suspend operations on March 1 after 500 locals set up barricades on a road leading to the site. The protestors were demanding the right to illegally sift through and sell tiny amounts of gold and copper in the tailings river.

And this followed with protests in Jayapura and Jakarta led by the anti-mining NGO groups, where “scuffles” were and still are frequently erupting.

Richard Adkerson, President and CEO of Freeport-McMoRan, told listeners at the BMO Nesbitt Burns Global Resources Conference earlier this month: “This is just part of the scenery of being in the mining industry today.”

However, even Indonesia's President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said he was sending officials to the scene and his ministers would investigate issues raised in controversy over the mine.

There have also been rallies over a deal last week between Indonesia's state-owned oil company and Exxon Mobil Corp. [NYSE:XOM] to jointly operate the country's largest untapped oil field in Cepu, Java Island.

And don’t forget, Newmont executive Richard Ness still faces criminal charges in the country. And the list goes on and on....

Granted, giants like Newmont, Freeport-McMoRan and Exxon Mobil have more resources per say at their disposal to overcome much of this risk. But what of the juniors currently exploring?

Junior Companies

Aside from the big boys mentioned above and nickel giant Inco [NYSE:N; TSX:N], there are a number of junior exploration companies currently braving Indonesia.

Pencari Mining Corporation [TSXv:PMC], formerly Azure Resources Corp., has a 90% interest in the Pani Property, located in North Sulawesi, Indonesia. The property was previously explored by BHP and Utah Mineral International Corp, and has an indicated resource of 431,451 ounces of gold and an inferred resource of 31,814 ounces.

Petromin Resources Ltd [TSXv:PTR] maintains a 70% interest in the Muko Muko gold mining property in the province of Bengkulu in south Sumatra, Indonesia. The land covers over 500 square miles (approximately 151,000 hectares) within the northern portion of the Lebong Gold District, which includes a trend of old mines and mineral properties that stretches for approximately 150 km along the west side of the Great Sumatran Fault.

Twin Mining Corporation [TSX:TWG] has an 85% interest in the Layuh gold-copper property, located in the province of South Kalimantan. According to the company, a number of short trenches have returned encouraging results: one trench showing 15 metres at 2.15 g/t Au and anomalous samples occurring throughout the whole length of the 40 metre trench.

Vista Gold Corp [AMEX:VGZ; TSX:VGZ] acquired the Awak Mas property in May 2005, located in Sulawesi, Indonesia. The deposit contains a measure and indicated resource of 1.65 million ounces of gold, according to company.

Waseco Resources Inc [TSXv:WRI] owns the Tewah Alluvial Gold property in Kalimantan. The deposit contains 750,000 ounce gold resource with an additional 2 million ounces identified by riverbanks. Should financing become available, the company predicts a cash cost of $93/oz with a mine life of 17 years.

The junior companies above all have interests in Indonesia, but not solely. The companies below have all their eggs in one proverbial rickety basket.

Indonesia Only Juniors

Apolo Gold Inc. [OTCBB:APLL] has the development rights to a gold-silver property in Sumatra, Indonesia. According to the company, the mine will be a low cost operation once production is achieved with costs under $100/ounce. The company also boasts excellent relationships with government, the property owner and the local mining community.

Kalimantan Gold Corporation Limited [TSXv:KLG] has four porphyry copper-gold-silver prospects located in Kalimantan, Indonesia: Baroi, Beruang Kanan, Focus 1 and Mansur. The company has 18 years of experience working in Kalimantan and has identified 38 prospects in that time, according to the website.

Pacific Wildcat Resources Corp’s [TSXv:PAW-H] Sulut gold property is located adjacent to the town of Kotabunan on the northeastern tip of the island of Sulawesi in Indonesia. According to the company, Sulut has 1.2 million ounce of gold resource as well as an extensive regional reconnaissance program.

Weda Bay Minerals Inc [TSX:WDA] owns the rights to develop the Halmahera property, located on Halmahera Island in the North Maluku province of Eastern Indonesia. Based on the extensive nickel and cobalt resources identified to date, the company is proposing to develop a mine and processing operation with the capacity to produce up to 60,000 tonnes of nickel and 5,000 tonnes of cobalt annually.

Southern Arc Minerals Inc [TSXv:SA] has a total of seven mineral properties located in Lombok, Sumbawa and Flores Island. The company’s goal is to become “the premier mineral exploration and development company” in Indonesia.

Conclusion

Based on the findings of Newmont and Freeport-McMoRan, we know that Indonesia has ample resources at a very low cost of production. However, the recent attack on the big boys, whether it isolated or specific to each case, still leaves an unsettling feeling in regards to the little guys.

Alex Turkeltaub, Managing Director of Frontier Strategy Group, told Resource Investor that the next five years are going to be very slow years for investment in the country.

With things as they are in the country at present, “any junior that hopes to get a big buy out or investment from a major, won’t get it,” said Turkeltaub.

The Frontier Strategy Group recently gave Indonesia a triple “C” rating in its “Above-Ground Risk Report” - one of the lowest scores.

Turkeltaub said this is because Indonesia has a high level of corruption, community unrest and a government that will do little about it.

However, Indonesia’s willingness for political cooperation with the U.S. is “the light at the end of the tunnel,” said Turkeltaub. He added that 10 years from now we could see a serious turnaround in the country.

But until then, investors proceed with caution.

resourceinvestor.com



To: ms.smartest.person who wrote (854)3/21/2006 5:13:26 PM
From: ms.smartest.person  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3198
 
&#8362 David Pescod's Late Edition March 21, 2006

PERU COPPER (T-PCR) $3.37 -0.26
NOVA URANIUM (V-NUC) $3.76 +0.10
APOGEE MINERALS (V-APE) $1.04 -0.02

On Sunday new election poles were released regarding the
Peruvian election and it looks like Ultra-Nationalist, Ollanta
Humala is now tied with Free-Marketer, Lourdes Flores causing
even more stress in the Peruvian stock and bond markets.
This has caused Merrill Lynch & Co. to downgrade their
bonds as well as it is causing a little stress for those of us
who own some of the great mining stories in that country.

After having spent some time with billionaire Harry Dobson,
who warns people about “country-risk” and having seen
what Chavez did to shareholders owning stocks like PetroFalcon
(PFC), we are suddenly really adverse to “country-risk”
and took profits (and they were big ones on Bear Creek Mining
(BCM) and a few other stories recently) as we are concerned
about the election in Peru on April 6th.

Not worried at all though and giving the other side of the
story is Jim Dartnell, who is a mining analsyt at Wolverton
Securities. He points to what happened in Bolivia where the
Nationalists/Native Leader did get elected and caused grief for
a certain time, but now that he is in things seem to be back to
normal.

Dartnell points to Apogee Minerals (APE-V), which did lose a
couple of nickels in its stock price, but now it is hitting new
highs as if nothing has happened.

Dartnell who has spent some time in Peru points out that
“the mining sector represents almost 60% to 65% of the GDP
(Gross Domestic Product) in Peru and to muck around with
the way things are going would be just in essence like shooting
themselves in the foot”, he maintains. He also reminds us
that Peru is a little different then what Canadians are used to.
It wasn’t long ago, he says, that there were Guerillas roaming
the country side.

If you take the worst case scenario and the country does
demand somehow a chunk of the mining companies that are
there that would definitely not be good. But, he does suggest
taking a look at Peru Copper. This company that he thinks has
roughly 22 billion pounds of copper in the ground and when
you add the molybdenum credit it moves up to 27 billion
pounds of copper equivalent and he also suggests that after
the recent sell off for concerns of warrants plus the election,
this just becomes too good of a deal.

Even with country risk! When we ask him if he could
only buy one stock today, he is obviously braver then we
are and comes up with Peru Copper, the Catherine McLeod-
Seltzer and David Lowell company, as his top pick.

As a second pick he notes Nova Uranium (NUC) has just
started drilling and he says, “I’m sitting on the edge of my
seat over this story waiting for assays...mind you, those
first assays on three to five holes, to duplicate drilling of
decades ago are probably three weeks away…”.

As far as the mining market in general Dartnell suggests
that sooner or later we have to take a breather and maybe
that’s what we’re going through right now. That doesn’t
mean he is a big seller of many things, but instead of becoming
a “buyer”, he is more of an “accumulator”.

TIM HORTONS INC.
It’s probably going to be one of the hottest stock
issues ever done in Canadian history. There’s not too
many in the retail crowd going to get a sniff of any paper.
Heck, even the institutions have to fight like dogs
to get tiny allotments, but independent research firm
Veritas has taken a good look at “Timmy’s” and has
come up with a report called - “Roll Up The Rim...Buy
this before your double double and enjoy them both”.

In the 23-page report, they suggest that as far as
intrinsic value quotes, “Based on current operations
and modest growth assumptions, Tim Hortons appears
to be undervalued at the suggested offering price of
$21—$23. (Today, it’s raised to a higher level). We
see current operations worth $29 and modest future
growth in restaurants worth another $9 per share, for a
total of just under $38”.

They also give a good history of Tim Hortons which
was founded by the legendary Toronto Maple Leaf
(back in the days when they actually had a hockey
team there) defenseman Tim Horton as a way of supplementing
his hockey income and giving him something
to do in his post hockey career.

Starting in Hamilton, the company has grown to
over 2900 restaurants in Canada and the US….and I
swear we visited many of them and stood in lines in
virtually all of them.

Veritas gives a lot of credit to the management skills
of Ron Joyce who took over the original store in 1965
and quickly became a partner.

Either way, Wendy’s, which is selling off their chunk
of stock, looks like they are going to do quite well with
this. A great report and history on Tim Hortons by the
folks at Veritas.

THEY SAY THAT A PICTURE IS WORTH A THOUSAND
WORDS...WE’LL THAT’S ABOUT 20,000 OR 50,000
WORDS THAT YOU HAVE TO SEE TO BELIEVE!

If you ever wondered where all that oil money is going,
you should see what’s happening in the State of
Dubai, where obviously a lot of oil companies are finding
a new home. You would think this is Beijing the
way buildings are being built and everything from the
world’s tallest tower to Islands being made shaped
like palm trees. To take a look/see at this incredible
engineering and building bonanza, e-mail Sandra at
sandra_wicks@canaccord.com.

P.S. While China currently has the biggest gain in
consumption of oil, it’s the Mid-East region currently
experiencing the second largest gains.

ZINC:
After quite a run in so many commodity prices over the last
year or two, some prices seem to be topping out, but there’s
still a few with lots of oomph. Today zinc hits a new record
high on London as stockpiles continue to disappear. According
to Bloomberg’s report, ongoing demand from China again,
seems to be the story as they are now the largest consumer
for the steel galvanizing metal. Stockpiles for zinc have
dropped 48% in the past year and China, which only became a
net importer of zinc for the first time in 2005 is reported, by
Bloomberg’s to have imported 620,000 tons last year or 6% of
world demand. Meanwhile, with the approval of ETF’s for silver
in the United States, silver also hits a new 22-year high
today. For some juniors to take a peak at—might include Impact
Silver (IPT) for those looking at a cheap way to play silver
based on their Zacualpan play in Mexico and for zinc/copper/
silver, we’ve mentioned Western Keltic (WKM) before and still
think it’s a cheap way to play the metals group.

Disclosure: Peru Copper : Canaccord Capital covers this stock and has a Hold rating on it. (Hold: The stock is expected to generate riskadjusted
returns of 0-10% during the next 12 months.) Bear Creek Mining : Canaccord Capital covers this stock and has a Speculative Buy rating
on it. (Speculative buy: Stocks bear significantly higher risk that typically cannot be valued by normal fundamental criteria. Investments in the
stock may result in material loss.)


If you would like to receive the Late Edition, just e-mail Debbie at debbie_lewis@canaccord.com