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To: Dale Baker who wrote (45238)3/22/2006 12:25:47 PM
From: - with a KRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 118717
 
If anyone has ideas for stocks...

While this idea is not new for this board, I did pick up some SSL the other day. They appear to have put behind them the disappointment of the denied merger of its liquid fuels business with Engen and are moving forward. Management can now focus on other things.

A long term weekly chart looks appealing to me here.
stockcharts.com

Analyst's earnings expectations for next year have moved up 7 cents to $3.63. SSL is forecasted to grow 15% annually over the next 5 years, yet it has a PEG of only .69, profit margins of nearly 18% and a ROE over 30%. SSL isn't glamorous, unless you think getting gasoline from coal using an 80 year-old process and outdoing the Americans is sexy. :>)

High oil prices have renewed interests in coal and synthetic fuels. SSL is the world leader in synthetic fuel. Clean coal is becoming a reality with the latest technology developments.

At home, Sasol is building a plant to double production by late 2007. Yet SSL is also looking to expand its business footprint worldwide; check the recent news about possible projects in India and Indonesia. It has projects in Australia, Nigeria, Mozambique, and Iran. It is building two coal-to-liquid fuel plants in China. Sasol has teamed with Chevron to the tune of $6 billion to build plants in Qatar, which has the world's third-largest natural gas reserves, after Russia and Iran. It has been evaluating projects in the U.S., and after President Bush's comment about addiction to oil I'm sure Sasol is excited to exploit the 400 year reserves of coal here.

JOHANNESBURG, March 6 (Reuters) - Officials from South Africa's Sasol, the world's biggest producer of synthetic fuel from coal, will visit India later this month to discuss a potential coal-to-liquid fuels deal, they said on Monday.

Sasol Chief Executive Pat Davies said the trip was part of a wider plan to identify new places to establish plants based on its gas-to-liquids (GTL) and coal-to-liquids (CTL) technology and that the group had been cheered by U.S. President George W. Bush's stance that the United States must break its dependence on Middle East oil.

The group is focused on China, the United States and India, which rank among the countries with the biggest reserves of coal.

Two Indian companies involved in the energy business have already held talks with the company in Johannesburg on a possible project, and Sasol is going to India for more talks.


Sasol gets over 70% of its profit from its oil, gas, and coal activities and operations, and it has a strategy to grow its GTL business worldwide. This alliance and a lobbying effort is apparently part of it:

Gas-to-Liquids (GTL)

Alliance for Synthetic Fuels Launches in Europe
March 07, 2006

DaimlerChrysler, Renault, Royal Dutch Shell, Sasol Chevron and the Volkswagen group are launching an association—The Alliance for Synthetic Fuels in Europe (ASFE)—to promote synthetic fuels in Europe and to support research, demonstration projects, and public-private cooperation in the area.

ASFE is focusing on synthetic fuels made with the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) process from natural gas (Gas-to-Liquids, GTL), coal (Coal-to-Liquids, CTL) or biomass (Biomass-to-Liquids, BTL). The Fischer-Tropsch process produces a range of near-zero sulfur and aromatics transport fuels and chemicals.

Of the three processes, GTL is the most commercially advanced, with a few major of plants being built or planned worldwide and the prospect of increasing product availability from 2006 onwards. BTL—“second-generation biofuels”—needs further R&D investment is of great interest to European policymakers.

While the fuels resulting from the Fischer-Tropsch process are cleaner-burning in operation, thereby resulting in reductions in tailpipe emissions (particulate matter, oxides of nitrogen, carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons), the production process itself is energy-intensive and can throw off a large amount of carbon dioxide.

The use of CTL or GTL fuels results in greenhouse-gas emissions comparable to those produced by burning petroleum-based fuels, while the F-T fuels produced from biomass can contribute to vehicular greenhouse gas reductions of up to 90%—an important aspect of the fuel for European automakers, who must meet reduced CO2 emission standards.

**********************************

Bumi to ask Sasol to build $3bn fuel plant
March 22, 2006

Johannesburg - PT Bumi Resources, Indonesia's second-largest publicly traded resources company, will start talks with Sasol to build a proposed plant in Sumatra for as much as $3 billion (R19.02 billion) to produce diesel from coal.




To: Dale Baker who wrote (45238)3/22/2006 12:41:56 PM
From: schzammmRead Replies (2) | Respond to of 118717
 
Dale, I will throw Arch Capital ACGL out for consideration. One of the best managed companies in the insurance and reinsurance segment. Forward P/E estimate at 7.75 and PEG at .75. Net debt free? Decent chart. Also, due to the hurricanes the rate increases at the start of the year are a positive.

stockcharts.com

Cons: another record hurricane season would be a negative, however ACGL was one of the few reinsurance to have a yearly profit in 2005.

Not sure how bird-flu would affect reinsurance companies but I would think in a major negative



To: Dale Baker who wrote (45238)3/22/2006 12:59:12 PM
From: old tx oilerRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 118717
 
Dale, as a short term lurker here, first I would thank you for this board.
I have been trying to find smaller, profitable cos in the railroad industry that would benefit from the potential shortage of coal hauling facilities I have read about.

I will post when/if I find something worthy but am curious if you guys have searched this out before?

There is one small money losing co that supplies composite crossties to the RRs. They are made from waste products rubber/plastic and seem to be a great idea but haven't gotten the traction yet. It is NATK and trades for .15 range. I have not bought any at this time.

Thanks, Bob