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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (56461)	3/22/2006 10:42:27 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

"I am not sure this part is correct however "with average 30 yr fixed rate with 20% down and corresponding RE taxes and insurance added in.". I fail to see how down payment matters except for your proposal of measuring payment. It probably should not be payment but the median price itself. Otherwise you are constantly assuming that everyone always owes exactly 80% of their home at all times. That does not seem right. There might also be some double counting issues as well (ie:for those that think the FED should target inflation by raising interest rates, yet interest rates themselves are used to measure inflation in your example). Care to rethink that part? One other issue: how go you handle property tax deductions. Renters do not get them (except for one state), and most can deduct them. So.... property taxes should be after deductions perhaps." Then take what the national average of loan to value figure is at the time. Isn't LTV today somewhere around 50%? So you are right my 80% is off and doesn't account for changes going on in the real world. On your other points about discounting of new homes and tax deductions that complicates it too much without really changing the changing snapshot much at all. You already have median national home prices, median national rental rates, median sq footage, percentaqe of owners versus rentals, national LTV ratios, current interest rates.. Can also probably get RE taxes and insurance since rates are readily available as well though that is probably the hardest part of all with the homestead cap factored into the rate already since a segment of the total pool ends up paying a disproportionate share of the pie due to those with caps on RE. Wow maybe this leads to something?

To: mishedlo who wrote (56461)	3/22/2006 10:58:27 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I regard property taxes to be the second pinprick they will continue to rise even after housing prices soften esp since local governments will respond to their own deficits when housing goes into decline more clearly this year, two effects: - recognition of impact to USEconomy will be vivid - the decline will feed on itself, since refis and home equity extractions to fix their mortgage adjustments will fail personally, I have a nice approach which has worked my roommate and I cut a deal four years ago I pay for the cable TV bill, he pays for electric bill we have an apartment in an upscale building in suburbs it has electric heat, but apartmt unit is surrounded, insulated hot water is free, so gotta love those long showers in winter I have no electric bill or hot water bill Chaz pays for the rising bill which averages $100 per month hey! no gay jokes, I am a firm avowed hetero dude besides, he is asexual we have no garbage removal bill, no sewer bill, no hot water bill no property tax bill no security concerns just a creep of $10 per month in the rental increases annually no big deal the strain on homeowners will be monumental - property taxes - resets to mortgages - water, sewer, garbage - maintenance (roof, paint, heat system, termites) - breakin risk, security in no way do I regard home ownership to be a boon dont remind me of how my old Boston suburban home rose $100k after I sold it over the course of the last five years the stress level is lower here though, as a renter when the disposal is stuck, I just tell the bldg manager on Christmas weekend last year, the heat thermostat ignition trigger failed the maintenance guy was here within two hours try that as a homeowner better yet, the security guy late night is some 300 lb speed demon with a horribly bad toupee wig he is a great deterrent, esp since he smells bad no thief would want to go near him he is not that alert either every time I pass him, he is feeding / jim