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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (56507)	3/22/2006 1:48:19 PM
From: UncleBigs	Respond to of 110194

Massive credit expansion since 2001 has resulted in a lower dollar, higher real estate prices, higher stock prices, and higher commodity prices, collapsing risk spreads, lower volatility. I would expect credit contraction to result in the opposite.

To: ild who wrote (56507)	3/22/2006 3:06:05 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Is Orange County, California entering the Bust stage? This snippet from a post at Ben Jones' Housing Bubble blog by a OC appraiser: thehousingbubbleblog.com I am an appraiser in OC. I thought you guys might want to chew on these facts a bit. Notice the Coto de Caza numbers. By the way, data pulled from Tempo MLS, NDC data and RealQuest. I also drove the properties, in fact appraised comparables of these. There is much of this out here in OC, yes even in Ladera, there are pockets where prices are in REAL declines from mid 2005 and some from mid 2004. Its my job to report facts. You wont read this in any paper thats for sure. Coto De Caza: 22 Via Andorra (contracted on 5/9/05 sold 970k, 92 Via Andorra (contracted 8/24/05, sold 905K) 54 Via Andorra (contracted 2/19/06, sold 839k, ouch that has got to hurt, oh yea, zero down also) Keep in mind, these homes are all model match homes with similar locational influences. But it gets even better. I dedicate this one to all you realtors who farm the Coto market: 16 Via Candelaria (contracted on 4/1/05, sold 779k) 64 Via Candelaria (contracted on 1/14/06, sold 720k) 78 Via Candelaria (contracted on 1/4/06, sold 710k). These 3 on Candelaria are also the exact same models, with the exact same view influences. Jon Lansner of the OC Register, points out the dependency of this market on real estate.Among other things, “Let’s not overlook the financial clout that the real estate business has in this town. By my math, real estate of all sorts employed 253,000 in the fourth quarter of 2005. That’s up almost 80 percent since 1995. The boom turned the real estate community, so to speak, into 17 percent of all workers employed in Orange County.”