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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: UncleBigs who wrote (56672)	3/23/2006 5:01:12 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 110194

<Low interest rates didn't help Japan's real estate bubble> Japan had 100 year loans and real estate prices that would make current US prices look practically free. They also had zero need to finance their debts externally. I would not look to Japan to provide any insight whatsoever into what will happen in the USA.

To: UncleBigs who wrote (56672)	3/23/2006 5:03:09 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 110194

>>The one thing that could extend the housing/credit/consumption bubble is lower long term interest rates.<< It could of course....but we're not there yet and have even accelerated in the other direction: stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyyay[pb65!b200!f][vc60][iUb14!Li14,3!Lg]&pref=G Employment reports have been benign of late. It appears that the Fed will keep raising until employment starts to weaken or until "something breaks", ie, we have evidence of spreads blowing out and a derivative crisis. I know the Street wants to see it differently, but Bernanke still has to establish credibility as a "price stabilizer". Just like bubbleboy did in '87, and the results will probably be familiar...... Homies don't worry me at all as shorts. They're volatile, they'll be whammed and jammed, but there's less reward without putting up with that stuff when yer short. Selling puts around the position works pretty well if yer a committed housing bear, as does taking countertrend positions when they get oversold.