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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: - with a K who wrote (23631)	3/23/2006 6:19:07 PM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78671

Hi with a K - I have seen no forecast for rates to rise but you really can not forecast this with any accuracy. I am looking at the long term trend with this investment and trying to accumulate a position at some reasonable "value" price. I am learning fast that this is a sector that is very price sensitive to the day rates and if your ships do not have a lot of long term leases it can be a wild ride. I hope it will work the same way when day rates move higher. DRYS only has about 40% of their ships locked in with long term contracts 24 months or more. Therefore they are subject to these wild swings in price as day rates change. The only positive thing is you do receive a pretty good dividend. I like your idea of buying a basket of these companies to help diversify specific company risk. EXM looks interesting and may have good value too. At least we are buying at the lows w/ PE's below 3. It's hard to know when they will turn the corner but it will eventually happen as long as they have enough cash to stay in operation. DRYS new credit facility will make this happen. EKS

To: - with a K who wrote (23631)	3/23/2006 7:00:23 PM
From: sportsman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78671

with a K, A couple of links for rates and news: dryships.com tankerworld.com Tanker rates are expected to fall further this summer with more supply of ships arriving. Newbuilds have been driving dayrates down. Older ships haven't been scrapped due to the high dayrates in the past. This may start to change with depressed rates sometime this year. I have been playing around with shippers for 7-8 years with good results. The time to buy is when everyone is really depressed on the industry and then be very patient. The stocks are very volatile and watching them day to day can cause a lot of heartaches. I currently hold EGLE since they have around 75% of their fleet locked in for this year. EGLE should be able to pay around $2 in distributions this year. I am watching several others for entry points to ride out the next up cycle. just my 2cents worth, Riks