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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Perspective who wrote (56676)	3/23/2006 5:30:13 PM
From: UncleBigs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

The canary in the coal mine for me is mortgage originations. That is the fuel feeding the furnace. Less fuel in means the fire burns out.

To: Perspective who wrote (56676)	3/23/2006 5:43:16 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

I think you have to throw that all out, as today's markets are being driven by prop computer trading models, and indiscriminate carry trading. About the only period I can think of similar to now, was in the summer of 1929 when the mania was so strong, they just ignored clear and present danger, and a serious recession enfolding to boot. This makes timing impossible and a big sudden no warning thump more likely, so I'm just staying exposed with cheap puts in indexes.

To: Perspective who wrote (56676)	3/24/2006 1:30:18 AM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

credit spreads, silver/gold ratio imo

To: Perspective who wrote (56676)	3/24/2006 3:43:21 AM
From: Mike Johnston	Respond to of 110194

What should we be watching as a leading indicator of developing downward momentum? There have been quite a few indicators in recent past, that would point to a market break. They all have failed. One of the most reliable indicators used to be a spike in significant high volume breakdowns among leading stocks over a 4-6 week period. Every major correction in the past has been preceded by such a spike. In this market we have ongoing rotation and individual stock breakdowns, but indexes just keep chugging along. I guess something this time is different. IMO what is different is inflation, the gains in the market are 100% inflationary. The type of stocks that lead the market now, would confirm that thesis. Market leaders right now are stocks that benefit the most from rising inflation : commodity, energy, steel. Even airlines are strong after recent air fare hikes.