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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (190717)	3/24/2006 4:53:10 AM
From: BUGGI-WO	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

@Joe Interesting comments, which seems to fit well with many market players. " As far as Q1, I think AMD will outperform the forecast (of flat to slightly down) by being slightly up (1 to 3% from Q1). That will still be a great result, and you can even call it a blowout vs. Intel, but not on sequential basis. " I'm going with you here, it would be extremly good if AMD could show Rev. increase QoQ, which meanly depends on the ASP mix. Its my feeling that volume could come in 1-2% lower than AMD expected at their Q1 CC, but in the same region the ASP mix should be stronger, stronger than AMD expected when you ask me. So it could sum up to parity or 1-2% here or there -> tough call. The crucial things are mainly lying in the OEM area, which we couldn't track. So we will have to see, how big AMD also had to decrease prices just to compete with Intel on some deals? You know, I made my ASP sheets awhile ago, but the OEM impact is/was so big, that only checking retail could come up to false sentiments. But I'm really wondering why noone answered my yesterday questions. Ok, answers are not lying on the street ;-), but noone expressed some thoughts - I know, its hard to go forward on these things, so I will repeat these again here. Factors which remain "unknown" for me: - bonus payments to employees compared to 2005 - (interest expense - interest income) - Spansion partial payments/benefits - FAB36 startup costs in 1HJ. (+150Mio. for the year) - marketing costs QoQ - R&D costs QoQ - PSC group -> how big is the loss decrease? When we "only" look at these factors ALONE, REV. guidiance beside, you could see, that we could stretch Earnings numbers EASILY!!! by 20C not for the year - its for 1 single quarter. Take a baseline of 25-30C, which is low and add 20C and we are in the 50C region per quarter!!! I will predict an "demand-shock" Afterhour, if AMD will come in at 50C in Q1. So, investors are very nervous these days on techs and many have already lowered their EPS numbers for 2006 and 2007. On the other side the forecasted numbers came down and the underlying sentiment is weak. Call me crazy, but this is the floor which bodes well for the coming earnings season and I wouldn't be surprised, if investors aren't also surprised by the good numbers which will come. Ok, some companys will disappoint, as always, but the overall effects should be good. BUGGI