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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (56827)	3/25/2006 2:47:33 PM
From: booyaka	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

but people move and change locations for a variety of reasons, and some people have to sell and they will set the comps even if others fantasize. Then the appraisals will come in lower leading to a whole new feedback loop. I agree, but the "discretionary" sellers who would sell if they could get their price end up not selling. My point was that the process generally tends to happen more slowly than one might think. We may also start getting to a point soon when the mortgage holder makes them sell. I agree. It could very well be different this time. If mortgage holders expect a downward spiral in home prices, they have an incentive to aggressively cut their losses by liquidating the collateral ASAP.

To: russwinter who wrote (56827)	3/25/2006 5:12:10 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ, we are going to get into a situation where many people can not sell even if they want to. People who want to take another job will find they can't because they can't sell. As soon as someone is underwater, that person is trapped. Unable to sell, unable to move. Bankruptcy would be the only way out. But they have now rigged (or tried to rig), the bankruptcy game. Someone on the edge now has to take a class before they can file. If people delay to long to start the process, they might have already lost their home. Those with income, and not a lot of debt will be in a black hole of decreasing equity in their house with little chance of escape. Mish