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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: booyaka who wrote (56831)3/25/2006 3:11:41 PM
From: UncleBigs  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
Russ, do you think the Fed announces they are done after this next meeting or leaves it open and then decides not to raise in May?



To: booyaka who wrote (56831)3/25/2006 3:14:56 PM
From: russwinter  Respond to of 110194
 
Personally I think prices will fall off steadily, but if activity stays high enough initially (say 375-400 purchase index like now) then credit growth will hang in there. The key will be when lenders finally figure out they are financing properties with declining values, and adjust and tighten their lending standards, which will of course fuel the downturn. This kind of data will be illustrative if we can spot it?

March 23, 2006
Are lenders getting stingy?
blogs.ocregister.com

Perhaps. Fewer mortgage applications are easily passing the smell test for the home’s value and the quality of the collateral that protects the lender, says HomeSmartReport.

This San Juan Capo shop monitors home valuation databses. In an analysis of lending patterns, HomeSmart thinks this drop may be a possible sign of increasing vigilence by skittish lenders worried if the real estate cycle is turning. Among HomeSmart's finding issued Thursday:

In The O.C., 86.1% of applications fell into “slam dunk” status for the home’s value in the six months ended February vs. 90.7% for the previous half-year period. Statewide, 79.6% of loans were recently “slam dunks” vs. 83.8% in the previous six months.


Also by Lansner on OC:

Mid-March: Prices +9.6%; volume -21.6%

Forget the first two months of the year. They're wacky. It's now prime shopping season. And the first peek -- fresh stats from DataQuick -- shows if the current trends hold, March will be be the fifth straight month of year-over-year sales declines and the worst one-year drop since October 2004. For 22 business days ended March 15:

Median price Change from '05 Volume Change from '05
Resale houses $698,000 +14.1% 1,847 -26.9%
Resale condos $469,000 +13.0% 912 -28.1%
New residences* $649,500 -21.2% 531 +33.4%
All homes $627,000 +9.6% 3,290 -21.6%

*-Homes, condos and apartment conversions