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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Night Trader who wrote (5034)	3/26/2006 6:55:54 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218631

(1) I am guessing, but it seems to me that we are a lot closer to defining events than before, when anyone can put anyone else on some watch list that now has 200,000+ names already, and while not have a/c confiscated outright but frozen, which is just as bad, practically speaking. One could easily end up in a situation where one cannot fly and cannot withdraw funds. Nasty. (2) Having seen capital control in action by second hand (colleagues and friends) in France and Malaysia, and having heard about the happenings in Argentina and such places, the US is heading that way in a hurry, by helicopters. (3) I can see the possibility of USA admin demanding a withholding tax on offshore investor account sales of US equity/bonds, before applying such measures to the domestics. (4) The largest bankruptcies, past and current, and so probably the future, involve US companies of one sort or another, and as the economy is 50% finance based, it is only a question of time when events get interesting again. Why take a chance when one does not have to? What is it worth? Why put trust in politicians who think it a good idea to raise tariffs and think it a good idea and engage in endless wars on a whim? Politic and religion mixes badly; stupidity and power mixes worse; and when all four is blended, it is toxic, especially to wealth and reason. Recommendation: accumulate physical gold.

To: Night Trader who wrote (5034)	3/26/2006 10:23:24 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218631

Why overseas investors may want to avoid US brokerages and financial institutions - Not confiscation or bankruptcy, but 1. More red tape - part of "know your custormer". More forms, funds possibly held up, etc. We can expect more of this worldwide - some places worse than others. 2. More and higher witholding taxes. 3. Possibilities of account freezes while "X" is investigated. X being some broad categorical dragnet, like all Irish surnamed account holders with GSM phones who have traveled to South America in the past year. Every account which ends in the numbers "37". That's effective confiscation for as long as it lasts, which could be months. 4. Less likley - restrictions on currency conversion in /out of USD. I don't consider bankruptcy of financial firms likely after Refco. GM, maybe, but not Citibank. Even if bird flu spreads, the US Dollar drops, and there are more Hurricanes. Far too many regulators, bank officials, traders, etc. are worried about this, various hedges, firebreaks, and contingency plans in place. Fannie and Freddie are being cleaned up, high risk mortgages packaged and sold to Europe, and derivative books balanced, backed up by various central banks willingness to intervene early. Longer term, there could be more risk associated with the new Basel II bank capital requirements as banks compete and learn to abuse the regulations, and excesses in credit default obligations. Five years from now we could see another Nick Leeson (guy who hid losing trades and crashed Barings Bank) but not this year, still too many people watching.