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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (5039)	3/26/2006 11:27:00 PM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 218644

Flip answer : Until China runs out of parkings spaces for new cars. Historical answer : Commodity up cycles tend to run 15-25 years. Partially Useful answer : I don't know, but expect some nasty price drops along the way. Speculations : 1. China 2008 Olympic effect. A lot of activity in China is being driven by the 2008 Summer Olympics. By Q3-Q4 of 2007, purchases of copper for pipes and iron for buildings will slow, since the major structual construciton will stop by November - December, leaving only interior finishing - drywall, carpet, fixtures, furniture - which should all be in place before March 2008. Korea had a similar effect for 1988, and I have read that Japan did for 1964. 2. Baby Boomer retirement The numbers the "Boomer" generation retiring will increase sharply by 2012, maybe near a peak by 2016. Retirees will often sell a larger house and get a smaller one - this means that fewer new LARGE houses will be needed, and more new SMALL houses will be needed. This will reduce copper, wood, and other metal use. Also, auto travel to work drops, sometimes couples will change from two cars to one. They baby boom effects many Western developed nations. 3. Major terrorist attack. Another 9/11 event, not something like the London underground attacks, could cut consumption. 4. Oil cut off from the Persian Gulf. This would be an interruption, and heavy commodity use would resume once the oil was back and the world economy recovered. 5. Bird Flu or similar epidemic. Same as 4. If a large percentage of the population died, say > 1% then commodity prices could continue to drop - nobody will buy a new car if they just inherited their late uncle's Mercedes. 6. Eventually, the Baby Boomers start to die off, leaving houses, cars, flat panel TVs, and thousands of scratchy vinyl records of obscure rock and roll groups, polyester clothing, and other weird junk. I expect this will occur by 2025... All those open pit mines will be used to bury this stuff.