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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: regli who wrote (48717)	3/27/2006 11:10:44 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

The $39 experiment - asking for free stuff the39dollarexperiment.com

To: regli who wrote (48717)	3/27/2006 11:23:18 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

US debt clock running out of time, space So rapid is the rise of the US national debt, that the last four digits of a giant digital signboard counting the moving total near New York's Times Square move in seemingly random increments as they struggle to keep pace. The national debt clock, as it is known, is a big clock. A spot-check last week showed a readout of 8.3 trillion -- or more precisely 8,310,200,545,702 -- dollars ... and counting. But it's not big enough. Sometime in the next two years, the total amount of US government borrowing is going to break through the 10-trillion-dollar mark and, lacking space for the extra digit such a figure would require, the clock is in danger of running itself into obsolescence. The clock's owner, real estate developer Douglas Durst, knew such a problem could arise but hadn't counted on it so soon. "We really expected it to be quite some time," Durst told AFP. "But now, with the pace of debt growth only increasing, we're looking at maybe two years and certainly before President (George W.) Bush leaves office in 2009." The clock was the invention of Durst's father, Seymour Durst, who nursed a keen sense of fiscal responsibility and believed government profligacy to be a national curse. The elder Durst, who died in 1995, originally thought of the idea in the early 1980s as the US budget deficit started to mount during the presidency of Ronald Reagan, but the technology was not immediately available to realise his vision. The original 11 foot by 26 foot (3.3 meter by 8.9 meter) clock was eventually erected a block from Manhattan's Times Square in 1989 when the national debt stood at 2.7 trillion. For the next decade it tracked, odometer style, the government's red ink with an extra feature which, by dividing the main figure by the number of families in the country, offered an estimate for how much each family owed as their share. Toward the close of the millennium, with a booming economy fuelling annual budget surpluses, the clock began to slow and finally ran into its first mechanical problem. "It wasn't designed to run backwards," Douglas Durst explained. Believing that the signboard had served its purpose, the Dursts pulled the plug in 2000 with the debt total showing around 5.7 trillion dollars and the individual "family share" standing at close to 74,000 dollars. The clock was covered with a red, white and blue curtain, but not dismantled. "We'll have it ready in case things start turning around, which I'm sure they will," Durst said at the time. He only had to wait two years as the Bush presidency coincided with an upsurge in borrowing. The curtain was raised in 2002 and the digital readout flickered back to life showing a national debt of 6.1 trillion dollars with the numerals whizzing round faster than ever. In 2004, the old clock was torn down and replaced with a newer model which had optimistically been modified to run backwards should such a happy necessity arise. Instead the debt continued to rise at such a rate that the once unthinkable total of 10 trillion dollars veered from alarmist fantasy into the realm of impending reality. "When it became clear what was going to happen, our first thought was to free up the digital square occupied by the dollar sign so that we could cope with a 14th digit," Durst said. The latest plan is for yet another replacement, involving a larger scale signboard. "We're not happy at the impact we're making with this one," he said. Durst insists that the clock is non-partisan in its effort to shame the federal government over what he sees as its willingness to gamble away the nation's future. "We're a family business," Durst said. "We think generationally, and we don't want to see the next generation crippled by this burden," he said. Last week, the "family share" readout on the clock stood some loose change short of 90,000 dollars. news.yahoo.com

To: regli who wrote (48717)	3/27/2006 12:40:39 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

China: The Coming Rebalancing of the Chinese Economy Stephen Roach (New York) China is sending the world an important message: A key mid-course correction in its development model is coming — a shift away from export- and investment-led growth to more of a consumer-driven dynamic. This change will not be abrupt but it will be an increasingly dominant characteristic of the Chinese growth outcome over the next five years. It is aimed, first and foremost, at providing greater stability to the Chinese economy. It will also have profound implications on the global economy and world financial markets. .... .... * Commodity markets. A reduction of investment growth is likely to temper China’s impact on the demand side of many industrial commodity markets. In 2005, China accounted for around 25% of worldwide demand for aluminum and about 30-35% of global consumption in copper, iron, steel, and coal. As the pace of Chinese industrial activity slows in the years ahead, pressures on the demand side of industrial materials markets should ease — underscoring the downside risks to commodity prices at just the time when most investors have concluded that there will be no stopping the upside of a “super commodity cycle.” China’s efforts at energy conservation — a targeted 20% reduction in energy content per unit of GDP over the next five years — could well amplify the downside impacts on prices of oil and refined products markets. * Currency and trade tensions. Courtesy of rebalancing, China may be more inclined toward RMB appreciation as a means to promote a shift away from the excesses of export-led growth. The extent of this appreciation will undoubtedly be dependent on the reform and stability of its financial system. Pro-consumption initiatives should also boost Chinese import demand — an outcome that should reduce China’s net-export surplus and thereby provide support for its major Asian trading partners such as Japan, Taiwan, and Korea. The combination of RMB appreciation and reduced external surpluses should play an important role in relieving the anti-China trade tensions now building in the international community. Over the years, I have learned not to under-estimate the will and determination of the macro managers who shape the character of the Chinese economy. Time and again, they have made the right moves at the right time. I see no reason to doubt the wisdom or the execution of the coming rebalancing. morganstanley.com

To: regli who wrote (48717)	3/27/2006 12:47:57 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 116555

>>Businesses say it is hard to persuade Americans to perform the unskilled jobs that immigrants easily fill. Significantly higher wages might work<< What BS....higher wages will absolutely, 100% work. If the cost is inflation, then so be it. Americans are being asked to bear the cost of global wage arbitrage on their own, allowing unfettered immigration of unskilled laborers magnifies the problem. Enforce the farking laws, period.

To: regli who wrote (48717)	3/27/2006 1:39:54 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Toll Brothers Lifted by Upgrade By Nicholas Yulico TheStreet.com Staff Reporter 3/27/2006 12:03 PM EST Click here for more stories by Nicholas Yulico The homebuilding sector will post flat earnings growth in 2006 and 2007, and that means investors should focus on larger builders with established share-buyback programs and positive free cash flow, according to research reports released Monday morning by Wachovia. Analyst Carl Reichardt upgraded Toll Brothers (TOL:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) to buy from hold, noting that he believes the worst news is behind the company and that the stock represents a compelling valuation. Reichardt values Toll at $40 to $43, representing 8 to 8.5 times his estimate for 2007 EPS of $5.05. Analysts' average forecast is for 2007 earnings of $4.75 a share, according to Thomson First Call. Toll shares rose $1.47, or 4.3%, to $35.82 Monday morning. Even though he expects Toll's order comparisons to remain challenging in the short term, Reichardt anticipates the comparisons will get easier after the second quarter. He also believes a rebounding Washington, D.C., market (which represents about 15% of Toll's current community count) will help the luxury-home builder. Reichardt also downgraded three smaller builders because the companies have negative free cash flow and no major commitments to share repurchases. He cut Standard Pacific (SPF:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) to hold from buy, downgraded M.D.C. Holdings (MDC:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) to sell from buy, and cut Orleans Homebuilders (OHB:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) to sell from hold. "We still believe the large public builders have the ability to gain market share relative to their smaller brethren, even as headroom shrinks," Reichardt wrote in his report. "At 6.7x our new (2007 estimated EPS), we still believe the companies are inexpensive relative to the market, discounting some level of broad market slowdown. "However, as the cyclical slowdown unfolds we believe a secular change will emerge. As such, we are focused on the large players with sustainable advantages over mid-tiers, and builders with shareholder friendly capital management philosophies." The companies' shares were little moved on the report. MDC shares were down 8 cents to $66.80, Orleans shed 13 cents to $19.85, and Standard Pacific rose 15 cents to $35.16. thestreet.com